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Terravita Market Updates

April 2023 Terravita Market Update

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Terravita Market Update

May 2, 2023

April Market Update

  1. Terravita Market Update One Big Thing – Better Than It Looks.
  2. Sweet Basil Culinary Center
  3. More News You Can Use
  4. Thought For The Day

1. One Big Thing – Better Than It Looks

On the surface and according to the numbers, the Terravita real estate market had a boring month in April. But when you looked more closely, it was really something special.
In April, there were fewer Terravita sales than usual, and the prices kept going up. The same results have been happening all year. Not as many homes are selling, but the ones that do keep getting more expensive.
Real estate finance investment currency coin house
But the number and quality of high-price-per-foot sales were very interesting. Many of the most expensive sales of the year happen in March and April. But I can’t remember a time when there were so many great homes for sale in such a short time.
From homes that have been updated very well to lots with beautiful views and even houses that have the best of both worlds! This year, buyers looking for great homes were in luck. We had a great time showing off and having open houses for these beautiful homes, and we loved hearing your thoughts on them. So, thanks for coming by!

Why It’s Important

The seller’s market is getting stronger, but we continue to see questions about the market‘s direction and whether a crash is imminent. Another article came out last week that raised more concerns: “Metro Phoenix sees negative home price growth for the first time since the Great Recession.”
Such data can be misleading, potentially affecting the prices buyers are willing to pay due to misunderstandings. I often find myself educating other agents on the actual state of the market.
The Case Shiller mentioned in the article uses outdated data from three months ago, which can be misleading in a dynamic market. To give you a feel the difference timing can make here is an example.

Recent Terravita Averages Over Time

1-Year Average: If you asked about the Terravita market‘s average price per foot, using data from the past 12 months would give an average of $446 per foot.
6-Month Average: In a normal market, appraisers would look back just six months. In this case, the average would be $447 per foot.
3-Month Average: In a rapidly changing market, appraisers use a three-month average, which amounts to $467 per foot.
Pendings: In a very dynamic market, appraisers will consider pending sales, as they are likely much closer to the actual value. Currently, the average price per foot for pending sales in Terravita is $520 per foot.

April saw high average pricing ($484) and the highest price ($541), with five closings over $500 per square foot and Terravita‘s first $2 million closing! Next month promises even more excitement, with multiple sales expected to surpass $600 per square foot (assuming they close escrow).
This should clarify why April was a stronger sales month than it might appear and emphasize the importance of using up-to-date data when evaluating the market. (Note: this is also why we have been telling our clients since last fall that this would likely be a late selling year. We felt April and May could be the best months of the year.)

Go Deeper:

Amazingly, my newspaper article this month was right on point. Here is my May 1st Scottsdale North Newspaper article:

Go Deeper into Terravita Data

2. Sweet Basil

We are excited to share the story of an amazing business that recently made the move from Midtown Scottsdale to Scottsdale North! Sweet Basil Culinary Center recently opened at La Mirada on Pima and Pinnacle Peak.
Cooking hasn’t been my thing, but after meeting the owner, Martie, and discovering what they have to offer, I couldn’t help but feel excited, and we think you will too! Happy watching, and we hope to see you there soon!

3. More News You Can Use

I thought this was a good reminder for all of us about our stuff.
Another Scottsdale North Story!

4. Thought For The Day

Ralph Waldo Emerson Quote about happiness
The purpose of life is not to be happy. It is to be useful, to be honorable, to be compassionate, to have it make some difference that you have lived and lived well. -Ralph Waldo Emerson

Thank you all for reading and supporting our updates. We know there are a lot of things out there pulling for your attention these days. Please let us know anything we can do better.

Disclaimer disclaimer! Please don’t skip over this one, folks. It’s not your typical boring legal jargon. Just a friendly reminder that our lawyers made us include this so they don’t lose their minds. Read on, if you dare!

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
TerravitaRealEstate.com is not in any way affiliated with, or endorsed by, Terravita Community Association, Inc. nor is this in any way an advertisement for services provided by the Terravita Community Association, Inc.

March 2023 Terravita Market Update

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March Terravita Market Update

Terravita Market Update

April 2, 2023

April 2020 monthly calendar with yellow easter egg on the bright yellow background. Close-up view of monthly April calendar. Easter 2020 calendar with a bunch of fresh spring flowers
  1. Terravita Market Update
  2. Can Scottsdale North Become A Thing?
  3. Is Artificial Intelligence Taking Over The World?
  4. More News You Can Use
  5. Recap Of Our Live Market Update Event
  6. Just For Fun

1. March Market Update

April is here, and our normal fantastic weather along with it! Finally. Yee haaaa! No April showers bringing May flowers this week!
To give you some perspective on the Terravita real estate market this month we decided to turn back the clock a bit to those pre-pandemic days of yore. Check out this comparison:

March 2019                                                                                 March 2023

Just 4 years ago $299 per square foot was the pinnacle of pricing. It had to be a great update in a great location. This month we had a closing almost exactly double that! The market is moving up, and we will cross that $600 per foot barrier soon. You think that’s impressive? The next 4 years could be better.
As you can see in my “News, you can use” section ours is the fastest-growing county in the United States, and there is no reason to see that stopping any time soon. We have discussed all the semiconductor and tech companies coming to the valley. Below I have two new articles on how medical is also booming and within minutes of your home. The effect of Mayo’s land purchase could be huge for Scottsdale North. When this BioTech corridor that Mayo is calling “The Desert Oasis” was first proposed back in 2013, it was suggested that it would bring 30,000 new jobs to the area! I wrote the reporter of the article to see what the projections are now, and it is too early to project. With Mayo’s involvement, it should be amazing.
Demand is coming, and supply is still chronically short. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded, going back at least 23 years. Read that again:
New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded, going back at least 23 years.
We already have a shortage of homes in the valley, and new home builders have slowed their growth. If you don’t have residential rentals in your portfolio, you might want to join me in moving some investment dollars that way. Because prices have to go up, and we are seeing the beginnings of it in the Cromford Market Index.
Remember that the CMI is our best leading indicator of market balance. A value of zero indicates a balanced market, and values above 100 indicate a sellers’ market.
Here is the current daily chart for the whole valley:
This is why we are telling our sellers who don’t have to sell to be patient and telling our buyers not to be.
Days on market are not a thing when the market is moving up.
If you’ve been thinking about investing in real estate, now’s the time to do it. And I’m not just saying that because I’ve got a vested interest in it (although I totally do). We are in a gentle sellers’ market, but demand is coming, and prices will be moving up, which means if we don’t act soon, we can get left in the dust. Nobody likes to be in the dust, do they?
Let us know if you are interested.

The front page of the Scottsdale North Newspaper this month says what I have been saying all along- Let’s brand ourselves Scottsdale North!! To see why we think it should happen read here: It’s Time To Brand The Area

While we are on the topic
Here is the first article we have seen posted addressing Scottsdale North
One more like this, and we can have Scottsdale North added to Wikipedia.

3. Scott’s April Article in The Scottsdale North Newspaper: Is Artificial Intelligence Taking Over The World?

Hey, have you heard about how artificial intelligence is shaking up the real estate game? It’s not just for sci-fi movies anymore. Our team is always on the cutting edge of technology, and we’ve been using AI to take the home selling experience to the next level. We fed a program called ChatGPT one of our toughest real estate problems, and it came up with a response that sounded like it was written by a real person. It’s not perfect, but it’s a great example of how AI can help us better understand and empathize with our clients. Check out our story Scottsdale North Newspaper story on how AI is changing the game for real estate in Scottsdale North.

AI Takes on Real Estate: How a Computer Understands Scottsdale North

4. And More News You Can Use:

5. Tina Tamboer Market Update

Thanks for joining us for our recent market update with Tina Tamboer! We really appreciate your support of our business.
In case you missed the event, we have a quick recap we can send you, or if you have interest, you can watch the entire event, via PowerPoint. Just click the link below 👇 and we will send you the information.

Contact

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6. One More Just For Fun

I went back to check out the $299 per square foot sale in 2019 and found a photo we shared with you before, and it is worth the revisit.
Our twilight night shots have a longer exposure time, and in this case, the photographer captured a Bobcat strolling across the driveway. You can see a ghostly image just between the 2 planters on either side of the garage door. If I remember right, the photographer didn’t even know it happed until he was touching up the photos for us!
Thank you all for reading and supporting our updates. We know there are a lot of things out there pulling for your attention these days. Please let us know anything we can do better.

Click Here For Past Market Updates

Disclaimer disclaimer! Please don’t skip over this one, folks. It’s not your typical boring legal jargon. Just a friendly reminder that our lawyers made us include this so they don’t lose their minds. Read on, if you dare!
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
TerravitaRealEstate.com is not in any way affiliated with, or endorsed by, Terravita Community Association, Inc. nor is this in any way an advertisement for services provided by the Terravita Community Association, Inc.

 

February Terravita Market Update

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Terravita Market Update

March 2, 2023

February Market Update

We have confusing times in the Scottsdale North real estate market, but what is clear is that there are shortages.

 

Last month I mentioned that the market was very slow but clarified that February is the real beginning of our selling season. I hinted that we would know much more about the market direction when we got through February. And we do. But it is a bit confusing.

 

Shortages And Confusion

 

Terravita is the largest market in Scottsdale North. In February, just 6 contracts were accepted, 4 homes closed escrow, and there are only 10 homes for sale on the market. Those figures are very low for February, and the rest of the Sco No area is very much the same.  

 

The current real estate market in our area and much of the Valley is experiencing extreme shortages in terms of inventory and sales.

 

This Chart Shows the homes sold in the Valley over the last 365 days

As you can see, sales numbers are very low.

 

Inventory is also very low. Fewer homes on the market can lead to increased competition and higher prices. However, low sales numbers can also mean that there is less demand for homes, which could potentially lead to a decrease in prices. And a quick check of the internet will yield you stories predicting a crash:

 

2023’s Housing Correction Could Be The Largest Since Post-WWII

House Prices Declining Fastest in Overvalued Markets Like Phoenix

Phoenix one of 4 cities will suffer a 2008 crash in home values: Goldman Sachs

Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low

 

Interest Rates Rising

 

Rising interest rates can affect the real estate market in a number of ways. When interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive for buyers to finance a home purchase. This can lead to a decrease in demand for homes, which could cause prices to drop. However, rising interest rates can also mean that inflation is increasing, which could lead to higher home prices.

 

As I said, it is a bit confusing right now. For those of you who are really curious or have decisions you need to make, help is on the way. We are hosting a live event on March 9th with Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report. I promise you will leave with a very clear understanding of the market today. Please let us know if you are interested in attending.

Click the link below To RSVP today

https://www.scottggroup.com/events

Go Deeper into Terravita Data

Scott’s Newspaper Article

This Month Is Asking For Help! Read It Below

Shop Small While You Are Here!

And More News You Can Use:

Not a typo: Price tag on super ritzy Paradise Valley estate set at $75 million

Phoenix-area inspector reveals some newly built homes have obvious defects

How Phoenix ranks among Top 10 most preferred markets

Rise of pickleball pitting neighbor against neighbor, leading to lawsuits

Check out this Laundry jet

Thank you all for reading and supporting our updates. We know there are a lot of things out there pulling for your attention these days. Please let us know anything we can do better.

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process, and is heading toward “closing.” 

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

TerravitaRealEstate.com is not in any way affiliated with, or endorsed by, Terravita Community Association, Inc., nor is this in any way an advertisement for services provided by the Terravita Community Association, Inc.

 

Click Here For Past Market Updates

Terravita December Market Update

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December and January are not big sales months as buyers are busy in other areas of their lives. But the Terravita real estate market had a solid month, with 5 homes going under contract and 7 closings. Those are not earth-shattering numbers historically, but given the market, we are in, they are quite good. The monthly sales price average also came in right in line with what we have been seeing. Those out there awaiting the “inevitable” market crash should find that a bit disappointing.

Why It matters:

After the May market shift many have predicted – and expected – huge drops in home pricing. So far, It ain’t happening. Our monthly Market at a Glance chart below illustrates that nicely:
The gray line in the graph above looks the most interesting. That is the average price per foot over the 30 days of each month. But with at most 15 closings in a month, this small sample size can give one a very skewed sense of the market. Some months there are only 2 or 3 closings!
The brown line in the graph above is much more interesting and accurate. That is the average price per foot over the preceding 365 days. That represents much more data over a longer period and gives us a more reliable representation. Our most recent market shift happened in May, and as you can see on the brown line, there has been very little movement since then.
And . . . the market has a startling new trend that suggests pricing could be ready to begin a new ascent! (For more on that, see the 1 Big Thing below)

Go Deeper

Demand is still a little low, but it is improving. Buyers don’t much like interest rates around 6%, but they like them a whole lot more than rates over 7%. But supply is collapsing. There have been only 4,875 new listings added to the Valleys’ real estate market in the last 4 weeks. This time last year, we had over 7,000!
Here you can see the active listing trendline:

 

November Terravita Market Update 2022

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Terravita Market Update

December 1, 2022

November Market Update

  1. Terravita November Market Update
  2. The Bigger Picture
  3. The Park is Done!
  4. Superbowl Rental$ For Fun And Profit
  5. Tell Your Story
  6. Fun Stuff
  7. The Bottom Line

1. Terravita Market Update

Last month we mentioned that pricing is key in this market. This month we see that there is much more to it than that.
Much of the valley is suffering from slow sales, but Terravita had a good month with 7 homes going under contract and prices holding up nicely. Five homes closed escrow with a $416 per square foot average price, which is quite good. AND the average was skewed downward by an astonishingly low sale. We mentioned here last month that pricing is key. This aberrant sale demonstrates that there is much more to it than just that. This home sold over $100 per square foot below the average and over $200 per foot below a home just 9 doors away on the same street!

Why It matters:

The largest determinant of value in Terravita is location. This home has a good floor plan and is located on an extraordinary lot backing to pristine desert and golf course in a very quiet section of the community. More importantly, it has unobstructed Black mountain views. Summation: This location is far above average, yet it sold for a far below-average price.

The Bottom Line:

There is much I could say about this but I will leave it at that.

Go Deeper into Terravita Data

2. The Bigger Picture

Since the market changed last May, demand in the Valley has dropped incredibly and across all areas and price ranges, but some are less affected than others.
Of the 17 major cities in the Valley, all but 3 are now officially buyers’ markets. Scottsdale is one of the remaining Seller’s Market cities, but it is very close to being a balanced market. Surprisingly, even though demand has dropped, there is still a shortage of supply.

Why it Matters:

When the demand dropped in the last market crash of the very early 2000’s the supply of homes soared. As we all remember, prices plunged. Not so this time.
Michael Orr of the Cromford Report says: “Although the lack of demand causes concern, the shortage of supply goes a long way to counter-balance this and downward pressure on prices is fairly light.”
The chart above details the overall price per square foot across the valley going back to 2015. As you can see, prices are far from plummeting right now and are actually about where we were this time last year. And remember this chart is Vallywide. Some areas like Scottsdale North are holding values even better.
Where does that leave us? Pretty much with a shrunken marketplace. We have fewer sellers and fewer buyers choosing to enter the marketplace.

The Bottom Line:

We will definitely see less sales this year, but some actually see prices moving up again.

Go Deeper: Phoenix-area home sales to drop in 2023 while prices grow, Realtor.com projects

3.  The Park is Done!

It was a long process, and we almost lost it at the very end, but we are getting the park!
It appears that Ashler Hills Park has jumped through all the necessary hurdles and that construction will begin early next year. Yee Haaa! We were in danger of losing it at the very last minute, but Scottsdale North residents stepped up huge!

Why it Matters

This will be Scottsdale North’s first (and probably only!) park, and it is almost a perfect representation of the community it serves. So perfect that we believe it should be named that way!

Go Deeper: To see why the park is a perfect reflection of your community and should be named that way, see Scott’s article from this months Scottsdale North Newspaper: Scottsdale North to Have its First Park
Go Even Deeper After You Read The Article
Note: The Wikipedia page I am having created is taking way longer than I expected. They tell me that it should be up and running by Mid-December. The Scottsdale North draft below will give you an idea of how it will read, and you can see what Arcadia’s says.

4. Superbowl Rental$ For Fun And Profit

The second week of February will have a HUGE demand for rentals this year because we have both the Waste Management Golf Tournament and the Super Bowl that same week!! Many local residents are renting out their homes for some serious coin that week. Could this make sense for you? Maybe if you are careful.

Why it matters:

This really can be profitable, but there are pitfalls. Here are a couple of articles to help:

5. Tell Your Story

The fact that life can be shorter than we expect was vividly driven home to me last month as I lost my oldest and dearest friend. His death was an absolute shock, and we still have no idea why he died, but it was far too early. While he was incredibly close to his family, and they heard a ton of high school and college stories at the funeral, it really wasn’t enough. He didn’t get the time he expected to retire and spend time fishing and hanging out with them. There is much they will never know about his experiences.

Why it matters:

This, of course, brought up my own mortality and that we have no guarantee of being around to share our experiences and stories. I am not a big talker and even less so about myself, and I was reminded that I need to share more with my family. And that if I don’t make it happen right now, it won’t.
I found a cool tool that can help called Storyworth. It is a simple but effective program that will prompt me with one email question per week. They have many question choices, and the family can choose them, or I can. I will answer the question each week, and at the end of the year, Storyworth will compile the answers or stories into a bound hardcover book. It isn’t the answer, but it is the start.
Go Deeper: I have no relationship with Storyworth, but I think it will be a nice thing for my family and thought you might want to know about it too. If you would like to preserve your memories for the people you care about, we are giving away two subscriptions to the first two people that reach out. Happy Holidays!

6. Fun Stuff I thought you Might like

7. The Bottom Line

We are alive and blessed to live in an amazing area that is about to become even more amazing. Let’s remember that through the rest of this holiday season. God Bless us, every One.
Thank you all for reading and supporting our updates. We know there are a lot of things out there pulling for your attention these days. Please let us know anything we can do better.

 

Click Here For Past Market Updates: Past Market Updates

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

 

 

 

 

October Terravita Market Update 2022

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Sign "November" made of autumnal natural objects. Colorful leaves and mushrooms arranged into the "November" text. Autumnal mood.

Scott Note: We know that your time is valuable, so we are trying to create a new format to respect that. This month’s format has more content, but rather than me just prattling on with my thoughts; we broke it up. This way, you can choose what to read, and how deep you want to go. We would love to hear any thoughts you might have.

October Market Update

  1. Terravita October Market Update
  2. Scottsdale North Property Taxes Dropped!
  3. Soon To Be A Complete Buyers Market
  4. Phoenix Housing Cooling Faster Than Most Major Cities
  5. Arizona named one of the 20 safest states in the U.S

 

1. Terravita Market Update

While we are only two weeks into the Terravita selling season, we are learning a lot. As always, there is a great demand for Terravita homes, and while prices are not what they were headed toward, they are holding up well. Pricing is clearly key.

Keys hanging in the air and a hand grabbing one key that is shining brighter than the rest.

Why It matters:

What we are seeing is that if a home is marketed well, and priced appropriately, it can not only sell but still with multiple offers. One of our sellers was concerned about a market correction and wanted to be sure to sell quickly. To ensure it sold, we priced $65,000 below what I felt the market would pay for it. Through multiple offers the home got bid up to exactly $65,000 above list price! 

Other Terravita Sales

The most interesting sale in October was one that had been on for sale before the market correction. (I view May 22nd as the final great weekend for sellers.) It was a crazy listing that stayed on the market for 136 days in total.

At one point, the home was priced at $1,588,000, or $630 per square foot. After a number of price reductions, it finally closed escrow this month at $1,250,000, or $496 per square foot. I’m not sure if this is a cautionary tale, but it was interesting to watch.

What This Means To You

In one of my ancillary articles below, you will see that Scottsdale is one of the few cities in the valley that is still in a seller’s market. But it is eroding. Demand keeps getting weaker, but new supply is also getting lower every week. The market is shrinking and sellers and buyers are both thin on the ground. We have interesting days ahead of us.

Go Deeper into Terravita Data

2. Excellent News Your Scottsdale North Property Taxes Dropped!

Magnifying Glass looking at a house below it is a paper with Property Taxes written out.

Those of you who paid your 2021 property taxes this year should have noticed a decrease when you paid your first half this past month. Even though it was only an 8% cut, I don’t think many counties in the country are seeing their taxes move in a downward direction.

It looks like the Maricopa County supervisors have decided to give us a break. It does make some sense since inflation is at its highest level in 40 years and Arizona’s economy is literally the hardest hit in the country. And they aren’t just robbing Peter to pay Paul in this case. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the federal government gave $435 million to the state to help pay for it.

What’s The Catch?

However, the reduction only affects the county’s share of the total property tax. This does not include local taxes, school levies, or bonds that have been authorized and assessed by a local government. And I thought you might find it interesting to know that even these added expenses in Scottsdale North are much more affordable than many other areas.

Why it Matters:

Just one more piece of evidence that while Scottsdale home prices are a bit higher, it is a better value. You always get what you pay for.

The difference in taxes is shocking, and the difference between what the assessor says the property is worth and what it is actually worth probably makes you at least curious.

Go Deeper: Scott’s Article In The Scottsdale North News Newspaper

3. Soon To Be A Complete Buyers Market

Cromford Report Market Index Statistics for October.

Things are still getting worse for sellers, with all 17 cities having seen a fall in their CMI over the past month. Scottsdale is still a seller’s market but rapidly deteriorating.  (Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.)

Why it Matters

There are few signs that inflation is subsiding, and it appears clear that rates will need to go higher again. The market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation report combined with more UK market drama to pushed rates to another 20yr high. 

Go Deeper: From Eliott Pollack: Monday Morning Quarterback

4. Phoenix housing cooling faster than markets in most other major cities

Downward Trajectory of Homes in reference to home prices on the decline.

This is according to a recent report from Redfin. Redfin examined price drops, supply, pending sales, sale-to-list ratio, speed of homes sales and more from February to August to determine which housing markets in the 100 most populous U.S. cities are slowing the fastest.

Why it matters:

Not only have prices fallen in recent months, but sellers see the market cooling and they’re more open to negotiating prices, giving concessions and paying closing costs. They may accept an offer that’s $20,000 below asking price and pay for repairs the buyer found during an inspection. Sellers can still get a fair price — but it’s with the understanding that they may have to wait several weeks for the right offer, and buyers are no longer willing to overpay.”

Go Deeper: Redfin Reports Seattle’s Housing Market Is Cooling Faster Than Any Other in the U.S.

5. Arizona named one of the 20 safest states in the U.S.

City of Phoenix Cityscape Horizon

Arizona has been named one of the 20 safest states in the U.S., according to WalletHub’s 2022’s Safest States in America list. It ranked No. 8 for emergency preparedness and No. 9 for workplace safety. The Grand Canyon State’s overall ranking was hurt by finishing No. 49 in road safety. 

Why it matters:

Crime is up in many of the cities and states that are Arizona’s feeder states. Higher taxes and Crime are what many are looking to escape.

Go Deeper: 2022’s Safest States in America

6. Phoenix Has Bargains

Image of United States and Showing Where Home Prices Have Dropped the Most

Phoenix has been on the leading edge of real estate trends for years. During the pandemic, baby boomers, families, and investors flocked to the city, bidding up prices to mind-boggling new highs. Some of the steepest decreases are in Sun Belt destinations.

That trend is reversing, and it has the 2nd fastest dropping median price. 

Why It Matters:

2 reasons: 

  1. Sellers need to adjust their expectations of copious quantities of buyers and quick fast sales. 
  2. The article says that Phoenix was number 2 in the fastest-dropping median price. That isn’t true in Terravita, but that won’t stop buyers from believing that it is. 

Go Deeper: Buyer Bargains: Here Are the 10 U.S. Cities Where Home Prices Are Dropping the Most Right Now

Just for fun:

Mega Mansions That Are Now Worthless

PRICEY! SCOTTSDALE PROPERTY FOR SALE FOR $55,000,000

Thank you all for reading and supporting our updates. We know there are a lot of things out there pulling for your attention these days. Please let us know anything we can do better.

 

Click Here For Past Market Updates: Past Market Updates

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.

Scottsdale North 2019 Mid Year Update

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2019 Scottsdale North Mid Year Real Estate Market Update

A Teachable Moment

Wow. The results for this quarter provide a great opportunity to better understand the Scottsdale North market dynamics. Below I will show you how critical patience is to the real estate selling process. 

My last two quarterly updates in this paper detailed an unprecedented decline in housing demand in the Valley. I described the dramatic affect it had on sales. To illustrate the trend, I showed the graph below displaying the last three years sales numbers in Scottsdale North. It is easy to see the plunge in sales numbers starting last fall, and the lingering effects of low demand through 2019.

 

Sales Per Month Year over Year show 2019 sales falling short of past sales year to date.

In each of the quarterly updates, I stressed that while these while these changes appeared to be dramatic, the fluctuations were really normal and consistent. I tried to make clear that there was no reason for panic or even alarm. Markets continually struggle to achieve balance and can change very quickly. I ended my Q1 Market Update in April by predicting you should, “watch for a flurry of sales to happen in the next quarter…” Below is a graph of what actually happened: 

May/June sales surge far exceeding sales year over year month to date.

As you can see, the shift in the market was quick and dramatic. We went from an unprecedented decline in sales for two quarters, to seeing the largest unit sales count ever measured for a calendar month in the Greater Phoenix market in May. June had the highest dollar volume total for any June in history. 

What does this mean for Scottsdale North?

We don’t have the space here to explain the specific reasons for that shift. The larger point is that the Scottsdale North Market is healthy and thriving. The only obstacle keeping sales down is the chronic lack of inventory. Even when seasonally adjusted, there are just not enough homes available to meet the demand. When you compare 2019 to the last two years, you see a 38% decrease in inventory:

38% fewer homes available to buy between 2018 and 2019 in the month of July.

We need more homes to sell to meet demand. Economic theory tells us that when demand increases and supply remains the same, the higher demand leads to a higher equilibrium price. 

Here is my advice about the market moving forward:

For Buyers: If you are price conscious, you might relax your standards. Try to find a home that is close to fitting your needs now, because it looks like waiting could be expensive;

For Sellers: You are in good shape and patience can be a virtue. I have two tips:

  • If you need to sell, pricing in a market with low inventory is difficult.  Make sure the market gets complete exposure to your home. We had one recent sale that sold at $26,000 and another at $37,000 above the listed price, because we allowed the market the chance to speak and set the right price.
  • If you have a home with a wart – something that makes it less desirable to the market like a dysfunctional floor plan, lack of updating, or proximity to a major road – this is your market. Low inventory means fewer choices. This helps buyers to get past their unreasonable pickiness.

October 2017 Terravita Market Update

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November 1, 2017 Terravita Market Update

HAPPY HOLLOWEEN FROM THE GAERTNER TWINS!

I just finished a 3 day real estate conference and was trick or treating last night so I will keep this short. Terravita had a good month for homes under contract and the Gaertner twins had a good night of Holloweening! Here is a video those of you looking for space might enjoy:Click Here> Bunkbed Couch

Here are the October 2017 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics:

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