For those unfamiliar, you should know that Elliott Pollack is by far the leading economist in Arizona. Over the last thirty some years through the ups and downs I have gone to his presentations, studied his reports, stolen his power points, and marveled at the insight in his predictions. He puts out a weekly message and while this isn’t specifically about the Terravita real estate market, I thought you might find this week’s enlightening:
ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 21st, 2018
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
The good economic news continues to abound in what was a busy week for data. Leading indicators were up as was industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales. Retail and food sales were also up as was single family building permits. The supply/demand imbalance for single family homes continues to push housing prices up both nationally and in Arizona. While the extent of the increase varies depending on the index used, home prices seem to be increasing at two to three times the level of wage gains. This can’t continue indefinitely. But, in the near term, it will create a great deal of home equity for those who own and will create affordability issues for those who don’t.
In Arizona, employment continues to grow. For the state as a whole, employment was up 2.3%. That’s enough to make Arizona the 7th most rapidly growing state in the U.S. for the first four months of 2018. Greater Phoenix grew, as has been the pattern in this cycle, much more rapidly than the rest of the state, while Tucson lagged. Yet, two new jobs announcements in the Greater Tucson area gave hope that Southern Arizona will do better than it has since the recovery began nine years ago.
Housing permits continue to be up at a double digit rate in the state’s two major metro areas. No end to the rapid growth in housing is in sight. The shortage of existing homes for sale continues. The increase in demand given the strong economy and the return of millennials to the housing market as well as the apparent lack of sufficient low priced new home deliveries seems to assure that.
Despite the age of the cycle, the outlook remains bright.
To read the article in its entirety click the link: Monday Morning Quarterback