May 2, 2022
Many of you have asked me to let you know when we see a change in the market. Please allow this eblast to serve as your official notification. The local and national markets are shifting, and at a somewhat slower trajectory, so is the Terravita market.
This week, Michael Orr, a Cromford statistics whiz whom I regularly follow, and discuss with you guys, issued a Red Flag Warning. He said, “The housing market is changing more rapidly with rising supply and falling demand. While it remains far above normal for now, the Cromford® Market Index is dropping fast.” He also posted this chart to evidence the described change:
For those of you less familiar, The Cromford Market Index is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
This chart is for all areas and types of residential homes in the Greater Phoenix area. As you can see, the values on the chart are all far above 100, indicating a balanced market. But the balance is trending significantly downward at a rapid pace.
The Cromford Index is a leading indicator that clues us in to where the market is heading. Another is rent prices, and we have seen those trending downward for the last few months, so it is clear that a change is coming.
Prices Are Not Dropping
Here are April 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
April 2, 2022
New Assisted Living & Memory Care Facility With Availability!
We have a number of clients who would love to sell their homes now in the hot market, but many of the local senior living communities are completely full and don’t have room for them. The other night, Keller Williams had its awards banquet at a beautiful, brand new senior living facility that still has plenty of room for new residents. It is just 11 miles from Terravita, as the crow flies, and just a couple of miles from the Noterra Mall Commercial District. Here is a website if you are interested: The Retreat At Alameda
And finally, below are some things we thought you might find of interest:
Would-be home buyers may be forced to rent the American dream, rather than buy it.
Doom and Gloom Articles
Home Sales may drop 25% by Summer?
Home sales see broad nationwide drop
Interesting Stuff
Maricopa County had nation’s largest population growth last year
Here are March 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
March 2, 2022
This month’s story might be all you need to know about our market.
A quick glance at February’s stats above might command a comment like “Oh Wow. A Luna listed for $1.25m sold for $1.335m. That seems like a lot.” or Wow another sale over $500 per square foot” or something like that. But that isn’t why you guys read these updates every month. You want to know the Rest Of the Story as Paul Harvey used to say.
That Luna is the same Luna that sold back in September for $1.1 million!!
So to be clear, the Luna model came up for sale in September and sold above list price with multiple cash offers for $1.1 million. The owners made no substantive improvements to the home and listed it for sale 4 months later, in January, for $1.25m. The result was 3 cash offers and it was bid up to a $1.335m sales price. Meaning that the market had two opportunities to vote on the value of that home and said that the home was worth $235,000 more just 4 months later.
Those sellers had no idea and were shocked at the price today’s market was willing to pay for their home last month. We can all learn from their good fortune.
Cautionary Tale
As a side note and a cautionary tale for sellers, take a look at the Days On Market (DOM) in the February stats graphic above. Do you see those first two sales with 0 Days on the Market? That means that the market had 0 days to vote on the value of those homes. And that was in the very same month when the market voted to buy the Luna for $235,000 more than the market had said the home was worth just 4 short months earlier. If those 0 DOM homes had actually given the overall market a chance to vote on the value, do you think the homes might have sold for more money? Maybe a lot more money? Just sayin…
We Are Seeing Early Warning Signs
That kind of appreciation in 4 months is not sustainable. How long will this go on? No idea. We are seeing the first signs of the craziness beginning to slow. Rental and home inventories in most places in the valley are beginning to increase. Also, On February 19th, the days of inventory moved higher than this time 12 months ago. The Cromford Report indicates “This is the first time we have seen a year over year increase since June 2019.” A small sign indeed, but a possible early indicator of a market peak.
And finally, the market is beginning to shift away from primary home purchases to investors. Primary home purchasers are the critical drivers of demand. When investors perceive that the primary buyers are slowing, they quickly cut back on investing in those areas. Cromford said that “Purchasers of homes as primary residences are down 15% compared to January 2021…”
But… if you hear this as prices dropping, you are wrong. Michael Orr of the Cromford Report recently said,
“We can safely conclude that anyone anticipating home prices falling in 2022 is kidding themselves. They have not understood how slowly the market changes direction, even at its maximum rate of change.”
Unlike the equities markets, the real estate ship is very slow moving. In the worst market shift we have ever seen, back in 2008, it took over 2 years for prices to be affected, and over 3 years for the crash.
This article also has the following input: What rising home prices mean for affordability in metro Phoenix
“Expect another sizzling hot spring shopping season,” Bachaud said. “If buyers finally balk at unaffordable prices, sales volumes could wither. But if homeowners finally start listing their homes en masse, we could see a sales bonanza, cooling the pace of appreciation.“
Right on cue, here is my article in this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper:
Scottsdale North Park Update

And finally a few articles that I thought you might find interesting:
https://golf.com/travel/pga-national-match-course-emphasis-fun
Here are February 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
February 2, 2022
February is Phoenix Open Month
Why Right Now Is a Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity for Sellers
If you’re thinking about selling your house in 2022, you truly have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity at your fingertips. When selling anything, you always hope for strong demand for the item coupled with a limited supply. That maximizes your leverage when you’re negotiating the sale. Home sellers are in that exact situation right now. Here’s why.
Demand Is Very Strong
Supply Is Very Limited
Right Now, Sellers Have Maximum Leverage
- An Above Market Sales Price
- Flexible Closing Date
- Few To No Repair Requests
- Potential For A Leaseback To Allow You More Time To Find A Home
- Minimal Offer Contingencies
- Minimal To No Showings
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of selling your house this year, now is the optimal time to list it. Historically, the best months of the year are February, March, and April and for the last 3 years, May has been huge too. If getting the most for your home is important to you the agent you choose has never been more important than it is right now. And I can prove it. Let’s connect to discuss how much your home is worth in this crazy market, and see if the time is right for you.
Here are January 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
January 2, 2022
Hello 2022!!!
December Update
The Market Ahead
ADVICE?
- Buyers: Find a way to get in as quickly as possible. In a market like this being picky is an expensive luxury.
- Sellers: Relax. Time is your friend. If you do need to sell be careful with pricing. My Scottsdale North Newspaper Article for this month will explain how we price into today’s market. Due to the holidays, the online version is not ready yet! But we will send it to you ASAP.
Connecting Scottsdale North
Lastly, I found a number of articles that I thought you might find interesting this month:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/29/what-will-the-2022-housing-market-look-like.html
2022 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: A Whirlwind Year
Here are December 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
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