October 2, 2022
September was a very quiet month in the Terravita Real Estate Market according to our 2022 Terravita market update. Only one home closed escrow, and only four contracts were accepted in the community. (By contrast, September 2021 had eleven closed escrows and seven contracts accepted.)
September Market Update
Ashler Hills Park Update
Here are September’s 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
This Month’s Articles
Phoenix got below-average rainfall for the monsoon but that’s not the whole story
Scottsdale ranked among top 10 places to retire in US
Listing Season Is Coming. Are You Getting Your House Ready to Sell?
Newcomers to the Grand Canyon State tend to come from California — with higher incomes
US housing recession could send home prices tumbling 20%, economist says
8% property tax cut approved for Maricopa County homeowners
A Rare Peek Inside Oprah Winfrey’s $90 Million Home – en.12up.com
Metro Phoenix home prices fall in August and poised to fall again in September
Phoenix home value decline slows down, but it’s still one of nation’s steepest
September 2, 2022
- The August Market Update
- Ashler Hills Pickleball Park Needs Your Help
- Why You Keep Getting Unsolicited Offers On Your Home
- Recent Reading
Ashler Hills Pickleball
NOT SO FAST!
Why You Keep Getting Unsolicited Offers On Your Home
I get sooooo many questions from folks about real estate calls and unsolicited offers on their home. Many are just wondering why it happens so often and if it is just them. They are usually curious if the offers are for real. Some folks just want to know how to stop the phone from ringing. This happens often enough that I am sure many of you also have questions, so I decided to write an article about it. In an attempt to help, here is my article for the September 1st edition of the Scottsdale North Newspaper: Targeted: Why Homeowners Keep Getting Unsolicited Offers on Their Homes Hope it helps, but if not give me a call!
Recent Reading
Here are August 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
This Month’s Articles
Arizona’s New Wholesaling Disclosure Requirement
What the Zillow fiasco can teach homebuyers and sellers about property pricing
A really good thing for buyers’: Metro Phoenix home prices continue to fall in August
How Covid-19 migration, housing trends will remake the suburbs
Is Phoenix a homebuyer’s market yet? Latest price data shows the answer is still no
August 2, 2022
Channel 12 News Story On Saturday’s Storm
Scott Note: The 4-page Terravita Mid-Year Update will be hitting your mailboxes this week. Inside are the mid-year results, comparative stats, and my thoughts on where the market is – and where it is going. If you are on vacation and would like a digital version of the report, Click here: Please email me an update.
July Update
If you are out of town, you missed a BIG storm Saturday night that I linked a video to above. There was a lot of rain and wind, so have your house checker check your house! If you don’t have one, we will be happy to help.
After a disappointing June sales report, the Terravita real estate market rebounded nicely in July. In June, Terravita only had 6 homes go under contract and had 3 cancelations. This month there were 10 homes under contract with no cancelations! We are trending!
Also great in July, we had the highest sales price ever for a Terravita home at $1,610,000 and came quite close to having a new record for the highest ever price per foot value.
Interesting Side Note
Last month, I documented for you how quickly the real estate market has shifted. Values are not dropping yet, but we are beginning to see some effects of the shift. An interesting example is a record-setting sale from last month. We listed the home in mid-May for $1.5 million, and it sold immediately for $1.61 million. By the time the buyers had the home appraised in early July, it appraised at just $1.3 million!! Holy Moly! One of the reasons people hire us is to protect them from the effects of low appraisals; I can tell you that this one got our attention.
NEWS
Last December, we did a Connecting Scottsdale North Spotlight video on a business called Health Cellutions. Their owner, Brian Thompson, says he uses data-driven technology to roll back the clock on our aging process. Brian’s motto is “Don’t let age change you; change the way you age!” Six months ago, I took him up on the challenge, and we have a new video coming this week with the results.
If you didn’t see the first video, watch it here. Small Business Spotlight: Health Cellutions
For reading pleasure, let’s start with the article I wrote for the August 1st edition of the Scottsdale North Newspaper: A Return To Balance
More News you can use: If you want to dive deeper into the market, we have linked 10 articles below that you might find helpful. If you are considering selling your home, you might also be interested to know that the first half statistics proved again so far in 2022: Nobody sells as many Terravita homes for as much money as Scott. Not even close. On a price per square foot basis Scott’s listings this year averaged $97,373 higher than the Terravita average and $50,523 more than his closest competitor!
Here are July 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
Report puts Maricopa County among least affordable US housing markets
What’s Up With the Crazy Housing Market?
Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic
Here’s why experts say Arizona housing market is on a precipice
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
July 2, 2022
Happy Fourth of July, All! I hope you have a great Independence Day weekend ahead of you. We will be in town, but I took the twins back to Chicago last weekend to enjoy a Cubs game and the city sights. Despite it being 101 degrees on Monday, we had a great time doing inside stuff like visiting the John Hancock building in the picture below.
Jackson and Olivia June 2022
Besides, celebrating the greatest country ever established this weekend also signals the year’s halfway point. As always, we will soon get you all the mid-year stats in our mid-year update. But you should know this last 6-month period has been off-the-charts extraordinary.
PRE-MID YEAR REPORT
We often discuss the Cromford Market Index here, so you are likely all very familiar with it, telling us the real estate market balance. A score of 100 is a balanced market, a score of 120 is a slight seller’s market, and a score of 80 is a remote buyer’s market. Scottsdale started the year at a ridiculous 531 and descended to just 205 this morning. Now 205 is still a very strong seller’s market! But the decline has not plateaued.
The market continues to deteriorate from a seller’s perspective. This is true both from how many buyers are out there looking to buy, and from the supply side as listing counts continue to grow. Michael Orr of the Cromford Report noted on the 26th: “For many weeks, we have been looking for some convincing sign of the relaxation of one or both of these trends. We have not found any. Instead, over the last week, the situation has turned significantly worse, at least from a seller’s viewpoint. And it is worse from both a demand and a supply perspective.”
Scottsdale could be in a balanced market or even a buyers market very soon. I would like to introduce a metric to give you a better feel for where we are right now. I only refer to it when the market is moving quickly up or down. It is called The Contract Ratio.
The Contract Ratio indicates how “hot” a market is. It specifically measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings. The higher the number, the greater the buying activity relative to supply. If this number rises, it is a sign of growing contract activity and a positive signal for sellers. Conversely, a falling number is a sign of a weakening market – either supply of active listings is increasing, contract activity is slowing, or both. In a balanced market for normal market segments, the value of the Contract Ratio is usually between 30 and 60. When it lies below 20, the market can be considered “slow” or a “cold market.” Above 60 can be viewed as a “hot market,” When it moves above 100, we regard this as evidence of a “buying frenzy.” The average level in high-end luxury market segments is lower, usually between 15 and 25.
I know that is a lot of explanation, but the chart should help. Below is the weekly Contract Ratio chart for the last 5 years in Scottsdale:
I started by saying it was an extraordinary 6 months in the real estate market, I think that the Contract Ratio Chart says it all. But I have also assembled some articles below for those who would like to read more.
We will be getting the Mid-Year together soon, but if you have any questions, please feel free to give me a call.
More News You Can Use:
Even Deep-Pocketed Buyers Are Starting to Back Away From the U.S. Housing Market
Home prices have begun falling in these 10 cities, according to Realtor.com
WHAT’S AHEAD FOR HOUSING IN PHOENIX?
A closer look at the 40 housing markets at risk of a 15% to 20% home price decline
Here are June 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
June 2, 2022
Today is my eldest daughter Shelby’s 27th birthday and after so many of you responded to my posting a picture of her wedding last September, I thought it might be fun to post her next milestone. Her first home!!
Shelby, Jared, and Rhue are insanely happy to be homeowners just outside of Denver.
For more info below I have copied my June 1st Article for the Scottsdale North Newspaper as well as some other links that could be helpful.
Scott’s Article: The Real Estate Market Is Changing
7 Terms You Need To Know Before Signing a Moving Contract
Phoenix-area homes start seeing price cuts, but demand is still high
Cities with the fastest growing home prices in Phoenix metro area
Here are May 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
May 2, 2022
Many of you have asked me to let you know when we see a change in the market. Please allow this eblast to serve as your official notification. The local and national markets are shifting, and at a somewhat slower trajectory, so is the Terravita market.
This week, Michael Orr, a Cromford statistics whiz whom I regularly follow, and discuss with you guys, issued a Red Flag Warning. He said, “The housing market is changing more rapidly with rising supply and falling demand. While it remains far above normal for now, the Cromford® Market Index is dropping fast.” He also posted this chart to evidence the described change:
For those of you less familiar, The Cromford Market Index is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
This chart is for all areas and types of residential homes in the Greater Phoenix area. As you can see, the values on the chart are all far above 100, indicating a balanced market. But the balance is trending significantly downward at a rapid pace.
The Cromford Index is a leading indicator that clues us in to where the market is heading. Another is rent prices, and we have seen those trending downward for the last few months, so it is clear that a change is coming.
Prices Are Not Dropping
Here are April 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
April 2, 2022
New Assisted Living & Memory Care Facility With Availability!
We have a number of clients who would love to sell their homes now in the hot market, but many of the local senior living communities are completely full and don’t have room for them. The other night, Keller Williams had its awards banquet at a beautiful, brand new senior living facility that still has plenty of room for new residents. It is just 11 miles from Terravita, as the crow flies, and just a couple of miles from the Noterra Mall Commercial District. Here is a website if you are interested: The Retreat At Alameda
And finally, below are some things we thought you might find of interest:
Would-be home buyers may be forced to rent the American dream, rather than buy it.
Doom and Gloom Articles
Home Sales may drop 25% by Summer?
Home sales see broad nationwide drop
Interesting Stuff
Maricopa County had nation’s largest population growth last year
Here are March 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
March 2, 2022
This month’s story might be all you need to know about our market.
A quick glance at February’s stats above might command a comment like “Oh Wow. A Luna listed for $1.25m sold for $1.335m. That seems like a lot.” or Wow another sale over $500 per square foot” or something like that. But that isn’t why you guys read these updates every month. You want to know the Rest Of the Story as Paul Harvey used to say.
That Luna is the same Luna that sold back in September for $1.1 million!!
So to be clear, the Luna model came up for sale in September and sold above list price with multiple cash offers for $1.1 million. The owners made no substantive improvements to the home and listed it for sale 4 months later, in January, for $1.25m. The result was 3 cash offers and it was bid up to a $1.335m sales price. Meaning that the market had two opportunities to vote on the value of that home and said that the home was worth $235,000 more just 4 months later.
Those sellers had no idea and were shocked at the price today’s market was willing to pay for their home last month. We can all learn from their good fortune.
Cautionary Tale
As a side note and a cautionary tale for sellers, take a look at the Days On Market (DOM) in the February stats graphic above. Do you see those first two sales with 0 Days on the Market? That means that the market had 0 days to vote on the value of those homes. And that was in the very same month when the market voted to buy the Luna for $235,000 more than the market had said the home was worth just 4 short months earlier. If those 0 DOM homes had actually given the overall market a chance to vote on the value, do you think the homes might have sold for more money? Maybe a lot more money? Just sayin…
We Are Seeing Early Warning Signs
That kind of appreciation in 4 months is not sustainable. How long will this go on? No idea. We are seeing the first signs of the craziness beginning to slow. Rental and home inventories in most places in the valley are beginning to increase. Also, On February 19th, the days of inventory moved higher than this time 12 months ago. The Cromford Report indicates “This is the first time we have seen a year over year increase since June 2019.” A small sign indeed, but a possible early indicator of a market peak.
And finally, the market is beginning to shift away from primary home purchases to investors. Primary home purchasers are the critical drivers of demand. When investors perceive that the primary buyers are slowing, they quickly cut back on investing in those areas. Cromford said that “Purchasers of homes as primary residences are down 15% compared to January 2021…”
But… if you hear this as prices dropping, you are wrong. Michael Orr of the Cromford Report recently said,
“We can safely conclude that anyone anticipating home prices falling in 2022 is kidding themselves. They have not understood how slowly the market changes direction, even at its maximum rate of change.”
Unlike the equities markets, the real estate ship is very slow moving. In the worst market shift we have ever seen, back in 2008, it took over 2 years for prices to be affected, and over 3 years for the crash.
This article also has the following input: What rising home prices mean for affordability in metro Phoenix
“Expect another sizzling hot spring shopping season,” Bachaud said. “If buyers finally balk at unaffordable prices, sales volumes could wither. But if homeowners finally start listing their homes en masse, we could see a sales bonanza, cooling the pace of appreciation.“
Right on cue, here is my article in this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper:
Scottsdale North Park Update
And finally a few articles that I thought you might find interesting:
https://golf.com/travel/pga-national-match-course-emphasis-fun
Here are February 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
February 2, 2022
February is Phoenix Open Month
Why Right Now Is a Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity for Sellers
If you’re thinking about selling your house in 2022, you truly have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity at your fingertips. When selling anything, you always hope for strong demand for the item coupled with a limited supply. That maximizes your leverage when you’re negotiating the sale. Home sellers are in that exact situation right now. Here’s why.
Demand Is Very Strong
Supply Is Very Limited
Right Now, Sellers Have Maximum Leverage
- An Above Market Sales Price
- Flexible Closing Date
- Few To No Repair Requests
- Potential For A Leaseback To Allow You More Time To Find A Home
- Minimal Offer Contingencies
- Minimal To No Showings
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of selling your house this year, now is the optimal time to list it. Historically, the best months of the year are February, March, and April and for the last 3 years, May has been huge too. If getting the most for your home is important to you the agent you choose has never been more important than it is right now. And I can prove it. Let’s connect to discuss how much your home is worth in this crazy market, and see if the time is right for you.
Here are January 2022 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
January 2, 2022
Hello 2022!!!
December Update
The Market Ahead
ADVICE?
- Buyers: Find a way to get in as quickly as possible. In a market like this being picky is an expensive luxury.
- Sellers: Relax. Time is your friend. If you do need to sell be careful with pricing. My Scottsdale North Newspaper Article for this month will explain how we price into today’s market. Due to the holidays, the online version is not ready yet! But we will send it to you ASAP.
Connecting Scottsdale North
Lastly, I found a number of articles that I thought you might find interesting this month:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/29/what-will-the-2022-housing-market-look-like.html
2022 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: A Whirlwind Year
Here are December 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and has begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
FOR MORE TERRAVITA MARKET UPDATES Click Here
