January 2, 2021
Happy New Year!
It’s been a wild year for real estate. It’s difficult to think all the way back to the beginning of 2020 as it feels like it has dragged on for an eternity and, at the same time like we’re still stuck in a March quarantine time-loop. Despite the fog of the year, plenty has happened in real estate. This has easily been the most dynamic market in my 27 years of charting Terravita sales.
In spite of a rough middle period in the early days of Covid-19, Terravita had 100 homes close escrow during the year. That is a good number for the year, and much better than I was expecting back in March! For the year the lowest price per square foot was $219 and the highest being $405 per foot! That is a big difference. And if you believe in supply and demand theories, that delta is going to grow this year.
For December sales, only one home sold below $300 per square foot and two sales were above $400 a foot! (See the raw data link below)
My article for this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper should help you to understand this a bit better. Click below to read.
I that doesn’t persuade you this graph should impress my regular readers.
The black line is what the Cromford Market Index is predicting to happen to appreciation values. The Blue lines are the actual recent appreciation values. This index is strongly correlated to the market and this is indicating that things are looking good for home values. It would appear we have a long way to go to balance out the supply.
Lastly, many of you signed up to watch the Desert Mountain home renovations video series we are doing. We heard some had problems getting enrolled. For that we are sorry. Please just let us know and we will make sure you see this week’s episode. Or just go here to see the article and sign up: Scotts Video Series
As always, we will get our Year-End Market Update out to you soon.
Here are the December 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
December 2, 2020
Ashley’s Truck With The First Load Of Pies!
It was great seeing so many of you on our 5th Annual Thank You Pie Day. Almost 100 of you showed up! We hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving and your pie in spite of the craziness we now call the New Normal.
Yep. Another Epic Terravita Sales Month
Terravita had another amazing month of sales in November. Eleven contracts accepted in November is a good month, but when you have 8 closings and the LOWEST price per foot is $298 that is saying something!
Scottsdale North prices are moving up Fast!
It is not just Terravita though. Above is a chart with the annual median sales price in 85266 over the last 3 years. I wrote last year about the $75,000 jump the median price took from 2018 to 2019. This year we surged $142,000 in the middle of a worldwide pandemic. Are you kidding me!?
Does that seem odd to you? I imagine it does because that is the topic that is by far my most common conversation. So common that I chose that as the topic for my article in this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper. If you haven’t gotten your paper yet and are curious I think you will find it enlightening. Please click below to read the newspaper article in the blog.
Scotts Article – Click Here To Read!
Here are the November 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
November 2, 2020
Hope you all had a safe and fun Halloween. With twin 11-year-olds at home we certainly did!
For many, many years $300 per square foot was the holy grail of Terravita home values. A home selling for $300 per foot had to be impeccably updated AND be located on the perfect lot with great views. It happened just about as often as having a blue moon on Halloween like we had last night!
Not anymore…..
This month out of 13 closings Terravita had an average price per foot of over $300 per foot, and we had one of them close over $400 per foot!! Holy Moley! We are in a new world, my friends! (As always the stats are below.)
Speaking of new worlds . . . if you have been wondering why many of our Canadian friends have not been around yet this year, below is an article will help you to understand:
Hopefully some kind of new normal will allow them back soon because these are some of the greatest people!
And finally, the most common questions we get these days are about how hot the market is and how Covid-19 has affected it. I thought this Forbes article did a nice job explaining a lot of it:
If you don’t feel like reading the entire article here are some relevant excerpts:
No matter who I spoke with, a few words kept resurfacing as we lurch into the post-pandemic future: warmer, safer, smaller, stabler, lower taxes, less regulation, and fewer lockdowns.
“By every metric, Americans are moving faster now than they were before the pandemic. Page-per-property views on real estate platforms like Realtor and Zillow are up over 50% year-over-year almost everywhere, inventory in America’s 100 top metro markets has been shrinking since March, along with days on market and the gap between list-to-sale price.”
“Businesses will continue seeking low-cost alternatives to more expensive coastal markets COVID-19 or not, which has fueled growth in markets like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Dallas, though workers that might have once opted for downtown living have shown a preference for suburban locales in recent months,”
Not a single city in California or the Pacific Northwest ranked anywhere near the top of anyone’s “Best Of” lists in terms of where Americans are moving, which suggests that the effects of COVID’s first flight from coastal cities last March may be fossilizing permanently.
Here are the October 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
October 2, 2020
This October Finds Us In An Unprecedented Seller’s Market
(See Scottsdale North Market Minute and Scottsdale North Article Below)
September was another incredible sales month with 14 contracts accepted even though the inventory was still stunningly low. The average sales price was AGAIN above $300 per square foot, but we have to wonder what it would have been if all the homes for sale had been available to all buyers.
I say this because lately, and again this month, we have seen many sales pop up as sold without ever having been advertised or offered to any buyers other than the listing companies. This is great for the listing company, as they get paid for the buyer and the seller, but we don’t believe that philosophy is fair to anyone else.
Buyers are at a disadvantage because they never get a chance to purchase the home they may have been waiting for many months to buy! And sellers are disadvantaged because they don’t know if the home actually sold for it’s true market value. Is the market value the same if just two people know the home is available for sale compared to if thousands know it is? How do you decide what the market says the home is worth if only part of the market gets a chance to vote on that value? We have seen many homes sell below what our buyers would have paid if they had the chance.
We continue to use our “Coming Soon” strategy where we show the homes coming to the market in advance and let everyone see the home at the same time. This ensures that all buyers get an equal chance, and our sellers are sure that they have the real market value. This also protects the community values. Like a rising tide raises all boats, as each home sells a little higher the entire community’s values grow and benefit.
As an example, our last home to hit the market had multiple offers and got bid up above the list price. The purchaser saw the listing pre-marketing and had time to fly in from the Pacific Northwest to be present at the initial open house. Then she chose to work with our team and establish what she needed to do to own the home. Would that have happened if the home hadn’t been pre-marketed and offered to all real estate buyers? We don’t think so. Speaking of Pre- Marketing . . .
COMING SOON GOLF AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS!
Look for more inventory coming very soon. Including at least 3 homes with golf AND mountain views! If you are looking to upgrade your lifestyle this could be good news. And you will have time to see these homes before they sell.
Click Below to watch this months Scottsdale North Market Minute
Click below to read Scott’s Scottsdale North Newspaper Article
Growing Preference to More Open Environment Helps Scottsdale North Real Estate
A Little Humor
Lastly, to again end with a little humor, below is a screenshot that our twin’s teacher sent us through Facebook. They are still in “virtual school” from home and I guess they decided to have some fun with it! 😁
Here are the September 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
September 1, 2020
After the hottest summer on record, I am soooooo ready for September. Every year about the 15th I go out early and can feel the difference. We aren’t to that place yet but I can see it from here!
The Terravita real estate market statistics look a bit less exciting this month but for August with no inventory, this was a very good month. Local COVID rates continue to subside so all is good. This Labor Day weekend could be a very good time for those folks from all those higher-tax states to come down to find there home in paradise.
In fact, we will have a new listing for them to look at, so watch your inboxes tomorrow morning if you know someone coming in. Also, if you do know someone coming in share my article below from the September Scottsdale North Newspaper with them:
Lastly, we can all use a little more humor in our lives these days. I thought you might enjoy this really clever commercial that one of my favorite readers sent me. Enjoy!!😁
Favorite Commercial- Click Here!
Here are the August 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
August 1, 2020
Happy Respect for Parents Day! This is a great year to honor our parents as many are locked down and could use a bit of our love. Give them a call or if possible spend some time with them.
The Gaertner twins should be respecting their parents as we just invested in their braces this week! 😁
The Terravita and the Scottsdale North real estate markets both had a little bit slower month in terms of the number of contracts accepted. But with interest rates at all-time lows, inventory is even lower. We do have good news though!
COVID HAS PEAKED?
Our statistician Michael Orr says that there is a good argument to be made COVID rates in the most populated areas seems to have reached a peak in the USA around mid-July.
On July 15th, 97% of the population of the USA lived in states where the weekly rate of new cases was accelerating. The good news is that by the end of July that number had fallen to just 40% of the population. Many of the hardest hit states are now reporting a deceleration in the weekly rate of new cases. This list includes Arizona:
- Utah -3.2%
- Louisiana – 2.3%
- South Carolina -2.3%
- New York -1.8%
- California -1.7%
- Texas -1.5%
- Nevada -1.4%
- Florida -1.0%
- Arizona -0.4%
- Georgia -0.2%
This could mean buyers from our biggest feeder states like California, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Illinois could be freed up to come buy a home here! With news like this they will want to hurry and get here: Unprecedented demand pushes Phoenix home price gains to No. 1 in US
I didn’t have the advantage of any this information when I wrote my Scottsdale North New article that came out in today’s August 1st edition which you can read below. (I have to turn it in by the 15th of the month.) This really could be the best time to sell your home ever.
Here are the July 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
July 1, 2020
Happy Canada Day to our great friends to the north!
The Terravita Real Estate market had another terrific month. I know this must be getting old to hear me say that Terravita had lots of closings and sales, prices are high, and there is very little inventory – but that is the story!
Terravita Sales
The number of Terravita closings in 2020 (46) is almost exactly the same as they were in 2019 (47) with one small difference. The average price per foot for Terravita closings at this time in 2019 was $259 per sq ft. and in 2020 it is $299 per foot.
That is over a 15% increase!
Even with COVID!!
To give you an idea of how good that number is, below is a year over year comparisons for the top 10 U.S. markets for appreciation:
National Appreciation Figures Top 10 Cities as of June 30, 2020
1.Phoenix 8.8%
2.Seattle 7.3%
3.Minneapolis 6.4%
4.Cleveland 6.0%
5.San Diego 5.8%
6.Tampa 5.8%
7.Charlotte 5.6%
8.Las Vegas 4.7%
9.Atlanta 4.5%
10.Portland 4.3%
National pending home sales volume jumped 44% in May which was the largest gain on record. All of this before much of the country has even opened up from COVID!
This is all good news if you own a home, but it does beg the question:
MIGHT NOW BE THE BEST TIME EVER TO SELL YOUR HOME?
To see Scott explain click the video below:
Want to read more about what could be ahead?
Check out the three articles below:
Here are the June 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
June 1, 2020
Happy 22nd Monday Of 2020!!!
Having 15 contracts accepted any month is a good sales month. But when you factor in that the month was May (not usually a top-selling month), that there were very few homes to buy, and all the effects of the pandemic, I would call that a great sales month. The average price per foot dropped slightly but that is to be expected in these extraordinary times. If you would like to see a more in-depth video of the Scottsdale North Market please click below:
June 1st Fun Fact – As of this morning the 85266 zip code has had only 6 -10 cases of Covid-19 making it one of the lowest case counts in the state. (Probably the lowest in a number of states!) This could be just one more reason to convince your friends to move here. And when you do . . . we are always here to help! 🙂
Here are the May 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
May 1, 2020
In the craziest conditions of our lifetime the Terravita real estate market had 10 homes go under contract and 6 homes close escrow this month with an average exceeding $300 per square foot!
That is impressive!
I am not saying it was easy. Selling homes with no clue where the economy is headed to buyers who often can’t even see the home in person is a new skill even for me! Everyone is on edge and cancellations are higher than I can ever remember. But we are blessed to be selling in a community so many people want to be a part of.
The future is still very unclear. But there are good signs. Mortgage applications are up significantly which means buyers are gearing up. Listings under contract have stopped its free-fall and begun to go up also.
The governor did not lift the Stay At Home order on May 1st as we had hoped, and COVID-19 cases are up slightly again this morning. But with the 100 degree heat here now one would have to guess the state will open soon.
May 1st Fun Fact – Terravita had a home sell for the highest price per foot sale EVER in April. 32796 N. 69th Street sold for $396.36 per square foot! Yeeeousa! It should be noted that it went under contract on March 16th which was weeks before “Stay At Home” and much of this craziness was apparent, but Holy Moly! I should also mention that it was also sold in January of this year for just $253 per square foot.
Nobody is more on top of this crazy situation than we are and we will keep you informed. Stay safe.
The U.S. Housing Market Just Got Some Fiercely Bullish News
Read More: https://www.ccn.com/housing-market-fiercely-bullish-news/
Here are the March 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
April 1, 2020
BREAKING: April Fool’s Day has been canceled because reality itself is inconceivable right now. 😊
I hope all of you are finding some blessings available during this locked downtime. With two eleven-year-olds at home, it has been surprisingly easy. Life actually feels a bit more normal.
As you can see by the numbers below, the Terravita real estate market had another great month. The closings didn’t average over $300 per square foot like it did last month but it was darn close.
The market is beginning to see some effects due to the virus. Showings have slowed a bit with the new regulations and inventory is increasing slightly. (Arizona just moved to “Shelter in place” status a few days ago.) There is not enough data yet to support any conclusions so it is hard to say what we will see in the market ahead. We are talking to brokers around North America that I have networked with over the years to gain perspective.
Real estate is an essential business in Arizona so business can be conducted, and rest assured that we have found some very creative ways to protect our clients. We have quite a few new listings coming to the market soon and last night’s photoshoot had the photographer in full mask and gloves. Our “virtual” showings and 360 photography can enable a sale without the buyer ever actually entering the home.
I have had plenty of time to read and discuss. If you have any questions or concerns about anything, please let me know.
Don’t Forget To Support Our Local Businesses!
Below is a really poor quality video I made to let you know that our buddies at JJ’s Deli on Scottsdale Rd and Pinnacle Peak are still open and serving the food that got them voted the best deli in Arizona.
We have a list of other restaurants that are still open for carryout at ConnectingScottsdaleNorth.com. In case you missed our original video describing JJ’s Deli check it out here: JJ’s Deli In Scottsdale North.
Here are the March 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
March 1, 2020
For months I have been suggesting in my updates that you should expect to see big movements in Terravita home pricing soon. Meaning once we hit the Super Selling Season. This month we have exactly what I was describing. Terravita had 4 closings all over $300 per square foot.
Those who pay attention to my monthly scribes know that for many years $300 per foot for has been the high watermark and a rare occurrence for Terravita pricing. This benchmark measurement has been the holy grail of Terravita pricing, reserved exclusively for the perfectly upgraded and located homes. That all four closings exceeded that average – and only one of them fits that “Holy Grail” description – is very impressive and telling. Obviously, these were all above average homes, and $300 per foot is not going to be Terravita’s overall annual average any time soon.
But…
This month’s results do speak strongly to the direction and strength of the market, and both buyers and sellers should take heed. The world has shifted. Buyer and seller mistakes right now can be several levels of magnitude more expensive than they have been in the past. In our 2020 Market Forecast event we held on last Thursday I outlined a number of ways both buyers and sellers can mitigate those mistakes.
Speaking of The Scottsdale North 2020 Market Forecast . . .
Everyone I spoke with who attended the event was moved by the thorough presentation and exceptional detail that Tina Tamboer from The Cromford Report used to evidence where our real estate market has been, where it is now, and where it is likely headed. All agreed that there was little supposition or opinions in her report – just facts laid out with data.
If you find these updates and the events that we put on like the 2020 Forecast valuable we would sincerely appreciate your help.
We’re working to build our audience and the Connecting Scottsdale North audience as well. Liking and Sharing the pages and links below will support our cause of helping the world to discover and appreciate Scottsdale North. To show our gratitude we will even send you a video of the entire market forecast presentation!
Help Us Build Awareness By Doing The Following Below:
As Our Thanks To You We, Will Send You A Free Video Of The Market Update When You Sign Up On Connecting Scottsdale North.
Like the Scott Gaertner Group Facebook page & share with a friend!
Like the Connecting Scottsdale North Facebook Page & share with a friend!
Go to ConnectingScottsdaleNorth.com to sign up for the FREE copy of the event!
Thank You!!!!
Here are the February 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
February 1, 2020
For the last several months I have been hinting in my month-end updates that I felt something big was happening in our real estate market. I can now say that I believe the Terravita Real Estate Market along with the Scottsdale North real estate market is poised for the most dramatic shift I have seen in my 35-year real estate career. It is time to stop hinting and show you the facts and figures so that you can make up your own minds.
On February 27th at 5 pm, we are sponsoring an event at the Foothills Foundation on 60th street and Carefree Highway to do just that. I am bringing in the foremost authority on valley real estate statistics to join me in a discussion on what we see coming in the 2020 real estate market.
If you have any interest in buying or selling real estate you will not want to miss this.
If you need to purchase or sell before that time you should call me. I have information that will save you thousands of dollars.
See below for details.
Here are the January 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
January 1, 2020
Hello 2020!
Wishing You A Year Filled With Peace, Prosperity, Happiness, and
Perfect 20/20 Vision!
Look, I know that it has been unseasonably cool lately but if anyone in Scottsdale complains to you please show them this picture of one of my For Sale signs at this time last year:
This was like 6 inches that stuck around for a while!
December’s Update Is Really More Of The Same Same But Different
- Inventory still very low
- Prices continue to rise
- Number of contracts accepted still unusually low
But . . . This year though the average price per foot of all 6 closings AND all 6 homes actively on the market average of $300 per square foot*. We have never seen anything close to that before. And as I have been saying you should expect more of the same for the foreseeable future. I know that you keep hearing my opinion but here is a couple of other reasons:
- In December, the National Association of Home Builders confidence index hit its highest level since 1999. Builders are clearly more optimistic, as mortgage rates dropped while wages are now growing near the fastest pace in a decade.
- More evidence of builder confidence was seen in Housing Starts, 13.6% ahead of a year ago. The three-month average of single-family starts reached a post-recession high, along with total and single-family permits.
- Tom Ruff from The Information Market said: This is the 5th time in 18 years of data reporting that December has claimed the highest median sales price for the year. STAT is projecting a median sales price of $287,900 which will surpass the June high of $285,000. Why is this important? In the past, strong pricing gains in December create strong price momentum as we move into our “home buying season” which takes off in March.”
Really, this first quarter looks to see some serious price gains. If you know anyone who is thinking of buying or selling they should really at least talk to me first. I have been through this before, and I promise you that not speaking to me could be VERY expensive.
Lastly, watch out for the Scottsdale North Newspaper this week. We will be asking for your help in Scottsdale North!
Together Let’s Make 2020 a Great One!
*Scott Note 1: A late closing came in at 2:06 am this morning – after I wrote this – that brought the closing average down below $300 per foot.
Scott Note 2: This home sold without being marketed in the MLS and if it had, in my humble opinion, the average may have remained above $300 per foot.
Here are the December 2019 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:
*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
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