December 1st, 2021

100 Closings Already!

Above is a chart with the annual Terravita closings for the last 5 years. As you can see 100 closings is a good number and Terravita has already reached that number in November. One more closed this morning and there are 12 pending sales waiting. Beyond the amazing increases in home values, 2021 has been a great year for home sales.

Cautionary Tale: There was a home that closed for a far lower price than one would have expected. This created a good buying opportunity for our buyers, but the price per foot was a bit jarring. Readers like you guys understand that who you choose to sell your home actually matters, but many of your neighbors do not. Helping them understand will help everyone. Please ask them to at least talk to me or maybe just send them our testimonial page:

Testimonials

Thanks from Scott

Thank you to those of you who reached out with the creative ways that you shared our gratitude pies. It was great seeing you all and reminiscing. We even have a video:

Market News

For those of you who feel that the market has topped and is ready to head back down, I have two foods for thought. Below is the Cromford Market Index chart showing that 14 of the 17 major cities moved further in the seller’s favor last month. And below that is an article saying that home values are expected to increase over 20% in 2022!

Valley home values expected to increase 20.8% in 2022

Connecting Scottsdale North

Our latest video from Connecting Scottsdale North. We visited Arizona Silk Flower Co and had the pleasure of getting to know Alan and Team. We think you should meet them too. Check out the video below 👇

Lastly, I found a number of articles that I thought you might find interesting this month:

Let’s start with my Scottsdale North Newspaper article for December:

Cash App Scams Are On The Rise: How To Protect Yourself and Your Transactions

News You Can Use

Celebrate the season with the 2021 KTAR News holiday events map

https://www.housebeautiful.com/design-inspiration/g38281142/design-trends-2022/

Zillow hit with multiple shareholder lawsuits

Here are October 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.
**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.
*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

November 1st, 2021

To begin this month, I have to start by saying that if you like these emails please add us to your contact list. We just had two more of our readers ask me why I dropped them off our email list. I hear this ALL the time! We don’t drop people unless they ask us to. Spam filters change all the time and other crazy web stuff that is way over my head. The best way we know how to correct this is for you to add scott@terravitarealestate.com to your contacts list and it should stop that from happening to you.

Thanks From Scott

Secondly, November is Scotts’ gratitude month. We would love to buy that pie for your Thanksgiving dinner. Instructions will be on this month’s mailer. If you will be in town for the holiday and would like a pie, go to ThanksFromScott.com and order your flavor!

October was a quieter month than we have seen for a while in the Terravita Real Estate Market. Just 4 homes closed escrow and only 6 contracts were written for the month. Those are very unusual low stats for October. But there is a good number of pending sales that will close escrow soon, and snowbirds are flocking back in town to begin looking for new nests! Also, our team alone will be putting 6 more homes on the market this month which will double the current inventory. Three of them with Huge View lots so if you know someone looking let them know!

The market is fine. It just took a breather and will catch up later. Really. Nothing to see here.

Lastly, I found a number of articles that I thought you might find interesting this month:

Let’s start with my Scottsdale North Newspaper article for November:

The Big Question: Should You Renovate or Move?

US home prices surged in August at near-record pace

https://patch.com/arizona/phoenix/douglas-ranch-project-expected-bring-100k-homes-phoenix

Goldman Sachs: Home prices will rise another 16% in ’22

Connecting Scottsdale North Is Back!

Our latest video from Connecting Scottsdale North. We visited Twist Bistro and had the pleasure of getting to know Larry and Sandy. We think you should meet them too. Check out the video below 👇

Thank You to all who Donated Blood

At the blood drive, 15 lifesaving donors stepped up to donate, resulting in 10 procedures for our community and reaching 71% of your blood drive goal. Your efforts are greatly appreciated and will go a long way toward assuring a strong blood supply, and ultimately saving lives. Again, thank you for your contribution and ongoing support of the community blood program.

We plan on doing more of these in the future and would love to have your continued support!

Watch our video below to see who won our raffle drawing donated by Tara at Old Republic Home Protection!

And The Winner Is….

Here are October 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

October 1st, 2021

My New Son In Law’s Reaction To Seeing His Bride Enter The Ceremony

Whew!

What a weekend we had in Park City this month as my daughter Shelby married her amazing husband Jared Anderson. They are a fantastic couple and Shelby got a much easier last name!!

Back To The Business

2020 was a good year for Terravita sales by any measure, but this year is much better.

By this time last year, Terravita had 68 sales with an average sales price per foot of $296. This year we have had 90 sales with an average price per foot of $380. AND . . . just in September, 11 homes closed escrow with an average price per foot over $400! This is a very good year selling for homeowners, and it is not ending soon.

Here are some reasons why it isn’t ending soon:

Bloomberg: U.S. Home Prices Gain 19.7% in Another Record for Hot Market and Phoenix Leads the Way

Forbes: Five Reasons To Buy Your Next Home In Scottsdale, Arizona

Scottsdale ranked as one of the best cities in the country to drive in

And finally, for those of you who like to keep your home in style, I thought this was a really informative video: 10 TRENDS THAT ARE DATING YOUR HOME

Scott’s October Article in Scottsdale North News

Have you been wondering if a Home Warranty is right for you? This may be a deciding factor for you!

Now Is the Perfect Time for a Home Warranty

Connecting Scottsdale North Cool things to do in October

We have a few events we think you might want to attend in Scottsdale North this month.

Scottsdale North Park Update!

The first item in our lineup and what you may have seen in an email a few days ago is the Park Town Hall Virtual Meeting. It is going through October 15th and if you want to know what the city has planned for the park and would like to leave feedback Click here to access the meeting Town Hall Meeting

In our last email, we shared something we thought would be a great addition to the park. Watch the video to see what we are talking about:

Why Hello is Turning Three

Some of you may remember our very first Connecting Scottsdale North Video we made Three years ago. It was done on a cell phone and Suzanne from Why Hello had just opened her doors. She was gracious enough to let us make a video of her new store Why Hello Modern Home.

She and her team have done very well over the years to make the store a neighborhood staple and they are celebrating a week from today with an Anniversary Party. Scott and Suzanne reunited to invite you to the party on October 9th. Check out the store and what it has to offer!

In case you missed it here is the original video of Why Hello with Scott!

Click here: Why Hello…Modern Home

A Pint for A Pint!

As Many of you know, there is a major blood shortage this time of year and in light of what has been happening with the Pandemic, there is no better time than now to donate blood. We have organized a mobile blood drive that will be coming up to Scottsdale North on October 21st, from 11:00-3:00 pm. There are only 20 spots available and if we have enough of you that want to donate we will bring them back for another round.

No better way to replenish after giving blood than with a pint of Frozen Yogurt from A Cherry on Top!

We know not everyone is able to give blood for one reason or another and because of this, we want to offer anyone that comes to Cherry On Top during the blood drive, a free Frozen Yogurt on us! All you have to do is say Scott Sent you!

Because we only have 20 spaces available we ask that you sign up for the blood drive. Email Scott to schedule a time! Scott@Scottgaertnergroup.com

Here are September 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

September 1st, 2021

Cool August

Rain again the last two nights! We just finished one of the best August weatherwise that I can remember. Lots of much-needed rain and cooler temps.

Terravita Real Estate Is Still Hot Though

Not much new to say except that the Terravita Real Estate Market continues to be amazing. This month the number of contracts accepted and the price per foot figures were again extremely high, but not record-setting. But . . . we did have a new highest Terravita Sales price at $1.6 million! Check out the Terravita stats below.

Scottsdale Is Heating Up

As I think we have well documented here, the overall real estate market is slowing a bit. But all real estate is local. If you check the Cromford Market index chart below you will see that Scottsdale is one of Arizona 4 communities that is actually improving a bit. And we aren’t even in our season yet and we are trending in the right direction!

Scott’s September Scottsdale North Newspaper Article

Speaking of real estate being local . . . that reminds me of this month’s article for the Scottsdale North Newspaper Real Estate section. If you are interested here is the article: Is It Better To Use A Local Agent?

Scottsdale North Park Update!

I followed up again this month with the City of Scottsdale to check the progress on the new Scottsdale North park that will be built behind the Summit Shopping Center. You might recall that they have told us the next step is a public town hall meeting via Zoom to discuss progress and plans as well as solicit input from you. The new head of the Parks and Rec Department has assured us that the Zoom meeting will happen late this month or early in November. I had been concerned the Covid Supply chain issues might derail the entire project but that does not seem to be the case. Nothing is decided yet, but I would say that a Pickle Ball presence looks good but a dog park not so much. We are going to put together a video for you next week with some other possibilities for the park.

Connecting Scottsdale North Is Back!

While Covid has not left us, we thought it was time to bring back our spotlight series to help you get to know local businesses. We begin with one with which you should all be familiar: Liberty Station. Paul Keeler from Keeler Hospitality Group was kind enough to give a quick tour of the restaurant. If you haven’t met Paul or his sons who also work there, you need to. Good people, great place. Check out the video below 👇

Final Fun

Lastly, I don’t know what this video is but one of my dearest friends and readers just sent it to me and I loved it. If you like country music at all I think you might too.

Especially the very end. 😀

Here are the June 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

August 1st, 2021

RECORD SETTING MONTH!!

In the spirit of the Olympics, Terravita Real Estate had a ton of world Records!!

Highest price per foot Ever: $507

Highest Sales Price Ever $1,500,000

Highest Average Price Per Foot ever: $418

Highest lowest price per foot ever: $350

8 homes closing escrow in July is probably a record and two of those homes sold and closed in the same month!

What a community! What a month!

These are truly unprecedented, incredible times. But it is going to slow down a bit. For more on that topic here is my article for the August 1st edition of the Scottsdale North Newspaper:

Scottsdale North Mid-Year Real Estate Market Update and Forecast

For more local analysis, the Terravita 2021 Mid Year Market Update will be hitting mailboxes this week. To read your copy early or if you don’t have a Terravita home click on the picture:

Here are the July 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

July 1st, 2021

For those of you not in town, you should know that we had glorious rain last night! Hopefully, more to come.

Despite the stories and indicators we follow showing that the balance is shifting, pricing continues to climb. In Terravita this month the average price per foot was almost $400 per square foot and we had a home go in escrow over $500 per foot!

Be looking for your Terravita Mid Year Market Update later this month. But to give you a sense of this year compared to last, so far in 2021 Terravita had 25% more homes sell and they sold with a 22% higher average price per foot than in 2020. Jeesh.

But these rising prices aren’t just in Terravita. Key metrics show appreciation rates of 38% and predict them to continue rising. Here is an article out this week: Home prices surge by most on record

Valley-wide How Does This Year Compare to Last?

Current Valley-Wide numbers for June 1, 2021, compared with June 1, 2020:

Active Listings: 4,917 vs 11,917 last year – down 68.7%

Monthly Sales: 9,692 vs 7,045 last year – up 37.6%

Foreclosure Frenzy Soon?

I continue to hear people say that supply is set to increase dramatically in foreclosures due to the end of forbearance. I think that is hard to fathom given the recent appreciation rates but I know it isn’t happening in our market. Here is what our statical Guru Michael Orr from the Cromford Report had to say:

June 26 – Back in 2008 everybody was focused on foreclosures, but in 2021 I have yet to get a single question about them. We still maintain the foreclosure database and the REO inventory, but there is precious little going on. Despite speculation that the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to increasing numbers of homes going into foreclosure, all that has happened so far is that the number of pending foreclosures in Maricopa County has dropped from 1,238 a year ago to just 611 today. This is close to an all-time low since we started measuring in 2002.

For comparison, the number of pending foreclosures for this week in June was:

2002 – 7,241

2005 – 3,385

2009 – 45,365

The current count of 611 is so low that even if we saw a ten-fold increase in foreclosures, it would still be considered normal, not excessive.

Here are a couple of other articles I thought some of you might enjoy:

Home renovations boom in Maricopa County

If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund

And one more for those of you sports fans. Really well summed up: Bickley: Suns’ trip to NBA Finals is a triumph we will never forget

Here are the June 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

June 1st, 2021

June 2, 1953, Queen Elizabeth Crown

(For The Crown Fans Like Me)

We have a lot to get to this month so let’s get started!

While the balance in the market is shifting a bit in the buyer’s favor in the greater Phoenix area, it is still decidedly a seller’s market. Below is the current Cromford Market Index, which illustrates the Sellers’ edge in the market weakening. (If you can call a score of 448 weak!)

Although the market is shifting, the Census Bureau chart below illustrates a more powerful way to see why so many economic experts predict that home prices will continue to rise for many years to come. Supply has fallen so far out of balance with our ever-rising demand via population growth that it will take years & years before prices will stabilize. This same data is causing large Investment Trusts (REITs) and Hedge Funds to continue to invest large sums of money into residential real estate across the United States, despite prices rising at a rate of 1% per month nationally and over 30% locally!

Local New Home Builders Are Working To Fill The Gap

Here in Maricopa County year-to-date (at the end of April), we have seen 40% more single-family permits than in 2020. The total of 12,815 across Maricopa and Pinal counties is the sixth-highest we have seen, but lower than 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006.

We are finally back to a “normal level” of single-family permits after 13 consecutive years of low growth.

The chart above speaks to the national housing shortage, but our market is being affected even more by the effects of The Great Shuffle. The Shuffle is the trend of people working remotely now deciding to live in better areas for their lifestyle. Many people think ours is a better lifestyle, and I thought this CBS Good Morning story explained it well: Why the real estate market continues to explode.

To read more on the Cromford Index and the market shift, here is my June 1st Article in the Scottsdale North Newspaper: How Can You Be Successful In a Changing Real Estate Market?

Finally, below are the May monthly sales figures. Remodeled homes that are done well are now consistently selling for over $400 per square foot. Absolutely amazing.

Here are the May 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contract accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

May 2, 2021

The records continue to fall in the Terravita real estate and this month that includes the highest sale price on record at $1,375,000. We also had 3 homes close escrow over $400 per square foot in April.

To give you a sense of what life is like for buyers right now a found a couple of articles and a short but brilliant Tic Tok video that I think you will enjoy. Below are the links:

Tik Tok Video

Seller’s Market in Phoenix is Brutal for Local Buyers

Out-of-Town Buyers with Deep Pockets Edge out Local Buyers

Here are the April 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

April 2, 2021

WOW. How about these Terravita Closings for March:

19 Homes closed escrow
3 Homes at or over $1 million
3 Homes over $400 per square foot (including one at $458 per foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
0 Homes under $300 per square foot

And there were 18 new contracts accepted!

Honestly, you have no idea how hot this market is right now and to be even more honest, I don’t have the time this month to tell you! I have so many stories that would blow your mind. I will try to get some time in April or May to write some of them up. Maybe June?

I would say this regarding the market today – You have no idea how much your home is worth right now!

We Have Other Stuff To Get To

Scottsdale North Park Update

For those of you interested in the progress of the park being built behind the Summit Shopping Center I followed up with Reed Pryor of Scottsdale Parks and Recs. Things are on track but some of you may be disappointed with some of their plans. Click below to read my Scottsdale North Newspaper article.

Scottsdale North Park Update

Reviving Loving Tree Update

The home is almost complete. If you would like to see the final product in person let us know!

For anyone who has been following our Scottsdale North Remodel show called Reviving Loving Tree. We have 3 new episodes for you to watch:

Click Here to Watch Reviving Loving Tree

If you would like to meet my design partner on the show, Jeffrey Florentine, he is the subject of the front page of the Scottsdale North Newspaper this month. In case you aren’t in town and don’t get the paper below is a link to the article:

Inspiring Design

The Coming 2021 Real Estate Market Crash

I read and watch everything real estate market-related because I assume you guys count on me to keep you up to date. This month I found what we have all been waiting for – a piece predicting an ugly ending to this huge run-up in pricing. It was a video that laid out a strong case for a housing crash and mortgage crises this year and then went on to explain why that can’t happen. I think it was just clickbait to get people like me to watch but it was done quite well. If you are interested click the video below:

To Those Celebrating Happy Good Friday And

Have a Safe and Happy Passover and Easter

Here are the March 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

March 2, 2021

Goodbye February is right! Our weather was a bit cool and wet this month but it was nothing compared to some real craziness many other parts of the country experienced. How crazy? The photo below was taken at a home in Dallas at the final walk-through on the day the home was supposed to close escrow.

That ice you see is because there was no heat to keep the pipes from freezing and breaking. Dallas was not prepared for this kind of cold and they also had no snow removal equipment to give access to the house anyway!

We are truly blessed to live here in the valley.

If you own a home here you are doubly blessed as the values continue to climb at unprecedented rates. Terravita’s February sales again averaged over $300 per square foot, and that included the highest price per foot EVER at $423! It was a Gorgeous home but I am still having a hard time wrapping my head around how far pricing has gone!

It was fantastic seeing so many of you at last weekend’s open houses. (There were a lot of you!) I don’t think we have ever had so many people show up. The second most common question I was asked this weekend was, “When is this crazy appreciation going to end?” I obviously don’t know the answer, but it would not appear to be soon. As always I defer to the guru of the Arizona Regional MLS stats Michael Orr for the important questions. He said yesterday that:

“The listing success rate is a solid indicator for the state of any market and the reading yesterday was 91.8% for all areas & types. This is the highest we have ever recorded.

If you want to see prices start to fall, you will have to wait until the listing success rate drops below 60% for that to become a possibility.

That is an awful long way down from the current levels. Massive changes would have to take place for listings to fail at a 40% rate.”

I think that should tell you that we are not at the end of this run.

The most common question this weekend was, “Why does your team seem to have all the listings?” (We don’t have anywhere near all of the listings, we just had some active ones last week.) But I will say that one reason we have a good percentage is our success rate. Due to our marketing plan, our Terravita homes have sold for an average of 12% more money on a price per foot basis, 10% more money on a sales price basis, and they sell faster.* That adds up to a lot more money, faster, just because you choose to work with our team.

We have been through this type of market before and learned our lessons very well. If you are thinking of selling, give us a call. Who knows, maybe you can be the next record breaker!!

If you aren’t quite ready to leave your house, we even have buyers that will let you stay in your home until you are ready to move!

Speaking of our marketing plan . . . my article in this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper spoke to a small part of what we do differently. Click below to read:

https://www.myhyperlocalnews.com/what-to-know-about-coming-soon-listings/

Here are the February 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

February 2, 2021

It is becoming difficult to find enough adjectives to describe the unusual nature of the current real estate market. Even if you leave out the fact that this is all happening during the largest pandemic in several generations, this is really crazy.

January Was A Very Strong Sales Month For Terravita

Terravita had 15 homes go under contract in January of 2021. That is a good number of sales in any month for Terravita, but the historical average for January is 6 homes under contract. So this January almost tripled the average, and historically there would have been 50 or 60 Terravita homes on the market for buyers to choose from. At no point in the month were there more than 7 homes for sale at one time, and most of the month, there were less than 5. That is nuts.

Oh, and the average price per foot this month again exceeded $320. Wow.

Since I am running out of verbal clues to help you understand how unique this market is, let’s try some visual evidence:

I have spoken here many times about the Cromford Market Index. The index was invented by Michael Orr, the Oxford mathemetician that I have brought to a number of our market update live events. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Below is a CMI chart of the last 20 years:

While the chart above is a bit busy, here you can see that the highest CMI value Scottsdale has ever seen was 229 back in the fake financing days of 2005 when banks were giving out loans to anyone who asked. The brown line moving up and to the right shows the high value for 2020 reached 410, and the blue line in 2021 shows we are currently at 508, and it is moving up!!

This is truly a unique market.

SOME FINAL FUN STUFF

Here is a link to an article I thought you all might enjoy about how many people have moved since the Pandemic: 8.9 Million People Relocated Since The Beginning of the Pandemic

For those of you who do not get the Scottsdale North Newspaper delivered to you, here is a link to this months article about our new home makeover show: New Scottsdale North Home Makeover Show

And finally, for anyone who enjoys golf . . .

Tomorrow I will be playing in the Annexus Pro-Am event at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This year, there is a limited field, but if you are out there, look for me and give you an autograph! Or just watch me on the Golf Channel. It should be a blast.

Here are the January 2021 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

January 2, 2021

Happy New Year!

It’s been a wild year for real estate. It’s difficult to think all the way back to the beginning of 2020 as it feels like it has dragged on for an eternity and, at the same time like we’re still stuck in a March quarantine time-loop. Despite the fog of the year, plenty has happened in real estate. This has easily been the most dynamic market in my 27 years of charting Terravita sales.

In spite of a rough middle period in the early days of Covid-19, Terravita had 100 homes close escrow during the year. That is a good number for the year, and much better than I was expecting back in March! For the year the lowest price per square foot was $219 and the highest being $405 per foot! That is a big difference. And if you believe in supply and demand theories, that delta is going to grow this year.

For December sales, only one home sold below $300 per square foot and two sales were above $400 a foot! (See the raw data link below)

My article for this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper should help you to understand this a bit better. Click below to read.

Click To Read Scott’s January Article

I that doesn’t persuade you this graph should impress my regular readers.

The black line is what the Cromford Market Index is predicting to happen to appreciation values. The Blue lines are the actual recent appreciation values. This index is strongly correlated to the market and this is indicating that things are looking good for home values. It would appear we have a long way to go to balance out the supply.

Lastly, many of you signed up to watch the Desert Mountain home renovations video series we are doing. We heard some had problems getting enrolled. For that we are sorry. Please just let us know and we will make sure you see this week’s episode. Or just go here to see the article and sign up: Scotts Video Series

As always, we will get our Year-End Market Update out to you soon.

Here are the December 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

December 2, 2020

Ashley’s Truck With The First Load Of Pies!

It was great seeing so many of you on our 5th Annual Thank You Pie Day. Almost 100 of you showed up! We hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving and your pie in spite of the craziness we now call the New Normal.

Yep. Another Epic Terravita Sales Month

Terravita had another amazing month of sales in November. Eleven contracts accepted in November is a good month, but when you have 8 closings and the LOWEST price per foot is $298 that is saying something!

Scottsdale North prices are moving up Fast!

It is not just Terravita though. Above is a chart with the annual median sales price in 85266 over the last 3 years. I wrote last year about the $75,000 jump the median price took from 2018 to 2019. This year we surged $142,000 in the middle of a worldwide pandemic. Are you kidding me!?

Does that seem odd to you? I imagine it does because that is the topic that is by far my most common conversation. So common that I chose that as the topic for my article in this month’s Scottsdale North Newspaper. If you haven’t gotten your paper yet and are curious I think you will find it enlightening. Please click below to read the newspaper article in the blog.

Scotts Article – Click Here To Read!

Here are the November 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

November 2, 2020

Hope you all had a safe and fun Halloween. With twin 11-year-olds at home we certainly did!

For many, many years $300 per square foot was the holy grail of Terravita home values. A home selling for $300 per foot had to be impeccably updated AND be located on the perfect lot with great views. It happened just about as often as having a blue moon on Halloween like we had last night!

Not anymore…..

This month out of 13 closings Terravita had an average price per foot of over $300 per foot, and we had one of them close over $400 per foot!! Holy Moley! We are in a new world, my friends! (As always the stats are below.)

Speaking of new worlds . . . if you have been wondering why many of our Canadian friends have not been around yet this year, below is an article will help you to understand:

Snowbirds from Canada face issues traveling to Arizona due to COVID-19 restrictions

Hopefully some kind of new normal will allow them back soon because these are some of the greatest people!

And finally, the most common questions we get these days are about how hot the market is and how Covid-19 has affected it. I thought this Forbes article did a nice job explaining a lot of it:

COVID-19 Has Changed The Housing Market Forever. Here’s Where Americans Are Moving (And Why)

If you don’t feel like reading the entire article here are some relevant excerpts:

No matter who I spoke with, a few words kept resurfacing as we lurch into the post-pandemic future: warmer, safer, smaller, stabler, lower taxes, less regulation, and fewer lockdowns.

“By every metric, Americans are moving faster now than they were before the pandemic. Page-per-property views on real estate platforms like Realtor and Zillow are up over 50% year-over-year almost everywhere, inventory in America’s 100 top metro markets has been shrinking since March, along with days on market and the gap between list-to-sale price.”

“Businesses will continue seeking low-cost alternatives to more expensive coastal markets COVID-19 or not, which has fueled growth in markets like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Dallas, though workers that might have once opted for downtown living have shown a preference for suburban locales in recent months,”

Not a single city in California or the Pacific Northwest ranked anywhere near the top of anyone’s “Best Of” lists in terms of where Americans are moving, which suggests that the effects of COVID’s first flight from coastal cities last March may be fossilizing permanently.

Here are the October 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

October 2, 2020

This October Finds Us In An Unprecedented Seller’s Market

(See Scottsdale North Market Minute and Scottsdale North Article Below)

September was another incredible sales month with 14 contracts accepted even though the inventory was still stunningly low. The average sales price was AGAIN above $300 per square foot, but we have to wonder what it would have been if all the homes for sale had been available to all buyers.

I say this because lately, and again this month, we have seen many sales pop up as sold without ever having been advertised or offered to any buyers other than the listing companies. This is great for the listing company, as they get paid for the buyer and the seller, but we don’t believe that philosophy is fair to anyone else.

Buyers are at a disadvantage because they never get a chance to purchase the home they may have been waiting for many months to buy! And sellers are disadvantaged because they don’t know if the home actually sold for it’s true market value. Is the market value the same if just two people know the home is available for sale compared to if thousands know it is? How do you decide what the market says the home is worth if only part of the market gets a chance to vote on that value? We have seen many homes sell below what our buyers would have paid if they had the chance.

We continue to use our “Coming Soon” strategy where we show the homes coming to the market in advance and let everyone see the home at the same time. This ensures that all buyers get an equal chance, and our sellers are sure that they have the real market value. This also protects the community values. Like a rising tide raises all boats, as each home sells a little higher the entire community’s values grow and benefit.

As an example, our last home to hit the market had multiple offers and got bid up above the list price. The purchaser saw the listing pre-marketing and had time to fly in from the Pacific Northwest to be present at the initial open house. Then she chose to work with our team and establish what she needed to do to own the home. Would that have happened if the home hadn’t been pre-marketed and offered to all real estate buyers? We don’t think so. Speaking of Pre- Marketing . . .

COMING SOON GOLF AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS!

Look for more inventory coming very soon. Including at least 3 homes with golf AND mountain views! If you are looking to upgrade your lifestyle this could be good news. And you will have time to see these homes before they sell.

Click Below to watch this months Scottsdale North Market Minute

Click below to read Scott’s Scottsdale North Newspaper Article

Growing Preference to More Open Environment Helps Scottsdale North Real Estate

A Little Humor

Lastly, to again end with a little humor, below is a screenshot that our twin’s teacher sent us through Facebook. They are still in “virtual school” from home and I guess they decided to have some fun with it! 😁

Here are the September 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

September 1, 2020

After the hottest summer on record, I am soooooo ready for September. Every year about the 15th I go out early and can feel the difference. We aren’t to that place yet but I can see it from here!

The Terravita real estate market statistics look a bit less exciting this month but for August with no inventory, this was a very good month. Local COVID rates continue to subside so all is good. This Labor Day weekend could be a very good time for those folks from all those higher-tax states to come down to find there home in paradise.

In fact, we will have a new listing for them to look at, so watch your inboxes tomorrow morning if you know someone coming in. Also, if you do know someone coming in share my article below from the September Scottsdale North Newspaper with them:

September Scottsdale North News Article- Click Here!

Lastly, we can all use a little more humor in our lives these days. I thought you might enjoy this really clever commercial that one of my favorite readers sent me. Enjoy!!😁

Favorite Commercial- Click Here!

Here are the August 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

August 1, 2020

Happy Respect for Parents Day! This is a great year to honor our parents as many are locked down and could use a bit of our love. Give them a call or if possible spend some time with them.

The Gaertner twins should be respecting their parents as we just invested in their braces this week! 😁

The Terravita and the Scottsdale North real estate markets both had a little bit slower month in terms of the number of contracts accepted. But with interest rates at all-time lows, inventory is even lower. We do have good news though!

COVID HAS PEAKED?

Our statistician Michael Orr says that there is a good argument to be made COVID rates in the most populated areas seems to have reached a peak in the USA around mid-July.

On July 15th, 97% of the population of the USA lived in states where the weekly rate of new cases was accelerating. The good news is that by the end of July that number had fallen to just 40% of the population. Many of the hardest hit states are now reporting a deceleration in the weekly rate of new cases. This list includes Arizona:

Utah -3.2%
Louisiana – 2.3%
South Carolina -2.3%
New York -1.8%
California -1.7%
Texas -1.5%
Nevada -1.4%
Florida -1.0%
Arizona -0.4%
Georgia -0.2%

This could mean buyers from our biggest feeder states like California, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Illinois could be freed up to come buy a home here! With news like this they will want to hurry and get here: Unprecedented demand pushes Phoenix home price gains to No. 1 in US

I didn’t have the advantage of any this information when I wrote my Scottsdale North New article that came out in today’s August 1st edition which you can read below. (I have to turn it in by the 15th of the month.) This really could be the best time to sell your home ever.

Scotts August Scottsdale North News Article

Here are the July 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

July 1, 2020

Happy Canada Day to our great friends to the north!

The Terravita Real Estate market had another terrific month. I know this must be getting old to hear me say that Terravita had lots of closings and sales, prices are high, and there is very little inventory – but that is the story!

Terravita Sales

The number of Terravita closings in 2020 (46) is almost exactly the same as they were in 2019 (47) with one small difference. The average price per foot for Terravita closings at this time in 2019 was $259 per sq ft. and in 2020 it is $299 per foot.

That is over a 15% increase!

Even with COVID!!

To give you an idea of how good that number is, below is a year over year comparisons for the top 10 U.S. markets for appreciation:

National Appreciation Figures Top 10 Cities as of June 30, 2020

1.Phoenix 8.8%

2.Seattle 7.3%

3.Minneapolis 6.4%

4.Cleveland 6.0%

5.San Diego 5.8%

6.Tampa 5.8%

7.Charlotte 5.6%

8.Las Vegas 4.7%

9.Atlanta 4.5%

10.Portland 4.3%

National pending home sales volume jumped 44% in May which was the largest gain on record. All of this before much of the country has even opened up from COVID!

This is all good news if you own a home, but it does beg the question:

MIGHT NOW BE THE BEST TIME EVER TO SELL YOUR HOME?

To see Scott explain click the video below:

Want to read more about what could be ahead?

Check out the three articles below:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/second-great-depression/613360/

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/504842-the-tale-of-a-global-debt-crisis-foretold

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii

Here are the June 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

June 1, 2020

Happy 22nd Monday Of 2020!!!

Having 15 contracts accepted any month is a good sales month. But when you factor in that the month was May (not usually a top-selling month), that there were very few homes to buy, and all the effects of the pandemic, I would call that a great sales month. The average price per foot dropped slightly but that is to be expected in these extraordinary times. If you would like to see a more in-depth video of the Scottsdale North Market please click below:

June 1st Fun Fact – As of this morning the 85266 zip code has had only 6 -10 cases of Covid-19 making it one of the lowest case counts in the state. (Probably the lowest in a number of states!) This could be just one more reason to convince your friends to move here. And when you do . . . we are always here to help! 🙂

Here are the May 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

May 1, 2020

In the craziest conditions of our lifetime the Terravita real estate market had 10 homes go under contract and 6 homes close escrow this month with an average exceeding $300 per square foot!

That is impressive!

I am not saying it was easy. Selling homes with no clue where the economy is headed to buyers who often can’t even see the home in person is a new skill even for me! Everyone is on edge and cancellations are higher than I can ever remember. But we are blessed to be selling in a community so many people want to be a part of.

The future is still very unclear. But there are good signs. Mortgage applications are up significantly which means buyers are gearing up. Listings under contract have stopped its free-fall and begun to go up also.

The governor did not lift the Stay At Home order on May 1st as we had hoped, and COVID-19 cases are up slightly again this morning. But with the 100 degree heat here now one would have to guess the state will open soon.

May 1st Fun Fact – Terravita had a home sell for the highest price per foot sale EVER in April. 32796 N. 69th Street sold for $396.36 per square foot! Yeeeousa! It should be noted that it went under contract on March 16th which was weeks before “Stay At Home” and much of this craziness was apparent, but Holy Moly! I should also mention that it was also sold in January of this year for just $253 per square foot.

Nobody is more on top of this crazy situation than we are and we will keep you informed. Stay safe.

The U.S. Housing Market Just Got Some Fiercely Bullish News

**Here are the March 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:**

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

**The term “Contracts Accepted” means that there was a new contracted accepted on this home this month. This is to say that this listing has moved from an “Active” status in the MLS to a “Sold” status and begun the escrow process and is heading toward “closing”.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

April 1, 2020

BREAKING: April Fool’s Day has been canceled because reality itself is inconceivable right now. 😊

I hope all of you are finding some blessings available during this locked downtime. With two eleven-year-olds at home, it has been surprisingly easy. Life actually feels a bit more normal.

As you can see by the numbers below, the Terravita real estate market had another great month. The closings didn’t average over $300 per square foot like it did last month but it was darn close.

The market is beginning to see some effects due to the virus. Showings have slowed a bit with the new regulations and inventory is increasing slightly. (Arizona just moved to “Shelter in place” status a few days ago.) There is not enough data yet to support any conclusions so it is hard to say what we will see in the market ahead. We are talking to brokers around North America that I have networked with over the years to gain perspective.

Real estate is an essential business in Arizona so business can be conducted, and rest assured that we have found some very creative ways to protect our clients. We have quite a few new listings coming to the market soon and last night’s photoshoot had the photographer in full mask and gloves. Our “virtual” showings and 360 photography can enable a sale without the buyer ever actually entering the home.

I have had plenty of time to read and discuss. If you have any questions or concerns about anything, please let me know.

Don’t Forget To Support Our Local Businesses!

Below is a really poor quality video I made to let you know that our buddies at JJ’s Deli on Scottsdale Rd and Pinnacle Peak are still open and serving the food that got them voted the best deli in Arizona.

We have a list of other restaurants that are still open for carryout at ConnectingScottsdaleNorth.com. In case you missed our original video describing JJ’s Deli check it out here: JJ’s Deli In Scottsdale North.

Here are the March 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

March 1, 2020

For months I have been suggesting in my updates that you should expect to see big movements in Terravita home pricing soon. Meaning once we hit the Super Selling Season. This month we have exactly what I was describing. Terravita had 4 closings all over $300 per square foot.

Those who pay attention to my monthly scribes know that for many years $300 per foot for has been the high watermark and a rare occurrence for Terravita pricing. This benchmark measurement has been the holy grail of Terravita pricing, reserved exclusively for the perfectly upgraded and located homes. That all four closings exceeded that average – and only one of them fits that “Holy Grail” description – is very impressive and telling. Obviously, these were all above average homes, and $300 per foot is not going to be Terravita’s overall annual average any time soon.

But…

This month’s results do speak strongly to the direction and strength of the market, and both buyers and sellers should take heed. The world has shifted. Buyer and seller mistakes right now can be several levels of magnitude more expensive than they have been in the past. In our 2020 Market Forecast event we held on last Thursday I outlined a number of ways both buyers and sellers can mitigate those mistakes.

Speaking of The Scottsdale North 2020 Market Forecast . . .

Everyone I spoke with who attended the event was moved by the thorough presentation and exceptional detail that Tina Tamboer from The Cromford Report used to evidence where our real estate market has been, where it is now, and where it is likely headed. All agreed that there was little supposition or opinions in her report – just facts laid out with data.

If you find these updates and the events that we put on like the 2020 Forecast valuable we would sincerely appreciate your help.

We’re working to build our audience and the Connecting Scottsdale North audience as well. Liking and Sharing the pages and links below will support our cause of helping the world to discover and appreciate Scottsdale North. To show our gratitude we will even send you a video of the entire market forecast presentation!

Help Us Build Awareness By Doing The Following Below:

As Our Thanks To You We, Will Send You A Free Video Of The Market Update When You Sign Up On Connecting Scottsdale North.

Like the Scott Gaertner Group Facebook page & share with a friend!

Like the Connecting Scottsdale North Facebook Page & share with a friend!

Go to ConnectingScottsdaleNorth.com to sign up for the FREE copy of the event!

Thank You!!!!

Here are the February 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

February 1, 2020

For the last several months I have been hinting in my month-end updates that I felt something big was happening in our real estate market. I can now say that I believe the Terravita Real Estate Market along with the Scottsdale North real estate market is poised for the most dramatic shift I have seen in my 35-year real estate career. It is time to stop hinting and show you the facts and figures so that you can make up your own minds.

On February 27th at 5 pm, we are sponsoring an event at the Foothills Foundation on 60th street and Carefree Highway to do just that. I am bringing in the foremost authority on valley real estate statistics to join me in a discussion on what we see coming in the 2020 real estate market.

If you have any interest in buying or selling real estate you will not want to miss this.

If you need to purchase or sell before that time you should call me. I have information that will save you thousands of dollars.

See below for details.

Here are the January 2020 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

January 1, 2020

Hello 2020!

Wishing You A Year Filled With Peace, Prosperity, Happiness, and

Perfect 20/20 Vision!

Look, I know that it has been unseasonably cool lately but if anyone in Scottsdale complains to you please show them this picture of one of my For Sale signs at this time last year:

This was like 6 inches that stuck around for a while!

December’s Update Is Really More Of The Same Same But Different

Inventory still very low
Prices continue to rise
Number of contracts accepted still unusually low

But . . . This year though the average price per foot of all 6 closings AND all 6 homes actively on the market average of $300 per square foot*. We have never seen anything close to that before. And as I have been saying you should expect more of the same for the foreseeable future. I know that you keep hearing my opinion but here is a couple of other reasons:

In December, the National Association of Home Builders confidence index hit its highest level since 1999. Builders are clearly more optimistic, as mortgage rates dropped while wages are now growing near the fastest pace in a decade.
More evidence of builder confidence was seen in Housing Starts, 13.6% ahead of a year ago. The three-month average of single-family starts reached a post-recession high, along with total and single-family permits.
Tom Ruff from The Information Market said: This is the 5th time in 18 years of data reporting that December has claimed the highest median sales price for the year. STAT is projecting a median sales price of $287,900 which will surpass the June high of $285,000. Why is this important? In the past, strong pricing gains in December create strong price momentum as we move into our “home buying season” which takes off in March.”

Really, this first quarter looks to see some serious price gains. If you know anyone who is thinking of buying or selling they should really at least talk to me first. I have been through this before, and I promise you that not speaking to me could be VERY expensive.

Lastly, watch out for the Scottsdale North Newspaper this week. We will be asking for your help in Scottsdale North!

Together Let’s Make 2020 a Great One!

*Scott Note 1: A late closing came in at 2:06 am this morning – after I wrote this – that brought the closing average down below $300 per foot.

Scott Note 2: This home sold without being marketed in the MLS and if it had, in my humble opinion, the average may have remained above $300 per foot.

Here are the December 2019 Terravita Real Estate Market Statistics*:

*Please note this report is created as of the first of the month and is prone to changes.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

FOR MORE TERRAVITA MARKET UPDATES Click Here